Michael Moynihan (Cork North-West, Fianna Fail)
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It is estimated that an additional 100,000 children, above the current pupil numbers on transport, could be accommodated on the mainstream scheme by 2030.

To achieve our ambition to expand and improve the scheme, i.e. that it carries 100,000 additional students, will require increasing costs over time to €672m in 2030.

If we do not implement the recommendations of the scheme, financial and economic modelling shows that the costs of the scheme will rise to €678 in 2030 in any case.

This is because the comprehensive set of recommendations if implemented will leverage four major factors:

• Creating opportunities for SEN children to travel on mainstream transport with the appropriate supports, should they so wish.
• Creating greater access to local provision for children with SEN so that they have to travel less distance to access appropriate educational provision for their needs.
• Decreasing demographics which will see spare capacity increase over time on the buses.
• Greater integration with public transport where appropriate.

The estimated cost to operate the scheme out to 2030 is set out in the attached table. It must be noted that there were certain assumptions and projections used in compiling these costs.

Building on data from the Department and Bus Éireann including profiles of the geographic distribution of School Transport Scheme users and projections for future trends in student numbers, as well as analysis of the likely impacts of different pricing policies, the projections in the attached table have been prepared.

In the Phase 3 report Indecon developed projections for the Review of the School Transport Scheme. All options project the total usage of mainstream service to peak in the short terms before slowly declining over the appraisal period.

At the time, the total costs to place a mainstream pupil on transport was approximately €1,100 per pupil with an annual increase of approx. 2.5% - 5%. Funding for future implementation of scheme amendments will be sought in the context of the annual budgetary process. All costs factored into the review costs were current costs.

With regard to the factors and outputs associated with the total review costs, a comprehensive cost benefit analysis was conducted as part of the final phase of the review. As part of this cost benefit analysis a number of options for the future operation of the scheme were considered and each option was fully costed. The cost to operate the scheme under the recommended option is set out in the published final report – School Transport 2030. There are certain assumptions and projections used in compiling these costs, as follows:

1. that the current years’ costs at that time were the base costs
2. costs will continue to grow at the current rate out to 2031
3. savings to be made on the SEN scheme are anticipated as a result of inclusivity on mainstream services, it was assumed in year 1 an uptake rate of 5%, increasing over the next four years to a 20% uptake rate in 4th year of implementation
4. it was assumed that costs associated with the reduction in parental fees and with additional services to cater for the increased demand brought about by the cost-of-living incentives, will be replaced by the review costs
5. Ukrainian costs will continue as required

With regard the estimated increase in the cost of transporting SEN pupils under the school transport scheme it was assumed that the cost would rise from €11,550 per pupil in 2024 to €20,250 per pupil in 2030, it should be noted that the cost per pupil for all pupils (SEN and mainstream) will increase over the period. With specific regard to the increase in the cost per pupil on SEN services, this is as a result of factors such as projected increased demand on the scheme resulting increased demand on contractor services, increased numbers of Bus Escorts and associated costs, Special Transport grants, increased contractor rates, and the move to more sustainable vehicles in line with climate action targets and the associated cost of same. It should be noted that the financial and economic analysis undertaken in the cost benefit analysis were completed in line with the guidance in the Public Spending Code, with all costs and assumptions based on information and data available to the external consultants at that point in time.

The funding allocated to school transport school in each of the years 2020 – 2025, by year are attached - note these are allocation figures.

The Safe Routes to Schools programme is coordinated by An Taisce, in partnership with the National Transport Authority (NTA) and local authorities. The programme is an initiative of the Department of Transport and the funding would not fall under the remit of my Department.

Allocations for the following years before supplementary requests are as follows:

2020 €224.6m

2021 €239m

2022 €269.7m

2023 €283m

2024 €380.6m

2025 €382m