Pearse Doherty (Donegal, Sinn Fein)
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337. To ask the Minister for Finance to confirm that the fiscal and economic outlook published on budget day will be the new medium-term fiscal and structural plan; to outline the circumstances in which the Government can deviate from the mid-term planning over the five years it is potentially in place for; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [25654/25]

Paschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael)
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The Economic and Fiscal Outlook is a document prepared by the Department of Finance incorporating the Department’s autumn macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts. It is published as part of the Budget each year.

Separately, under the revised EU fiscal governance framework, Ireland, like all EU Member States, is required to prepare and publish a medium-term fiscal and structural plan (MTP). Once endorsed by the Council of the EU, the MTP commits the Government to a medium-term net expenditure path. Ireland’s first MTP was published on October 15th last year.

Accordingly, the MTP is a separate document to the Economic and Fiscal Outlook.

Given the political cycle (approaching the end of the 31st Dáil), the current MTP was prepared on the basis of pre-existing policies, with technical assumptions for expenditure growth over 2026-2030 in line with those contained in Budget 2025.

In general, under the European fiscal framework, Member States may not deviate from the net expenditure path set out in the MTP, with the exception of a few specific cases. One such situation, as is the case in Ireland, is when there is a change in Government over the course of the plan. Under these circumstances, the framework allows for a new plan to be submitted. In addition to a change in government, a Member State may deviate from their net expenditure path through the activation of either a General or National Escape Clause.

The General Escape Clause, which was also part of the previous EU fiscal framework, allows for deviations from the net expenditure path in the event of a severe economic downturn in the euro area, or the Union as a whole.

The National Escape Clause is a country-specific clause that allows a Member State deviate from its net expenditure path where exceptional circumstances outside the control of the Member State have a major impact on its public finances.

In line with commitments set out in the Programme for Government, officials in my Department are currently preparing a new plan.