Eoin Ó Broin (Dublin Mid West, Sinn Fein)
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1200. To ask the Minister for Housing, Planning, and Local Government the methodology and data sources used by his officials for housing needs assessment of an average of 50,000 new homes a year to 2040 as set out in the revised national planning framework. [19207/25]

James Browne (Wexford, Fianna Fail)
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The National Planning Framework (NPF), 2018 is the long-term, 20-year strategy for strategic planning and sustainable development of urban and rural areas to 2040, with the core objectives of securing balanced regional development and a sustainable ‘compact growth’ approach to the form and pattern of future development.

The Draft NPF Revision was informed by Census 2022, with results indicating that Ireland’s population grew by 8.1% between 2016 and 2022 and with growth recorded in all regions. The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) were engaged to update their previous projections relating to population growth to 2040, based on demographic and econometric modelling and having regard to the results of Census 2022 and other factors with potential to influence fertility, mortality and migration trends.

The ESRI projections were published in July 2024 and estimated that the population of Ireland will increase by around one million people or by 20% over 2022 levels, to around 5.7m by 2030 and approximately 6.1 million people by 2040, with higher figures of 5.9m and 6.3m people respectively in a ‘high-migration’ scenario.

The Government approved revised housing targets on 5 November 2024 for the period 2025 to 2030. The targets are set at a national level and provide for the delivery of at least 303,000 new homes over the period, at an average of just over 50,000 per annum, rising to an annual delivery of 60,000 by 2030. The targets draw on the ESRI’s demographic and econometric modelling of population growth and structural housing demand to 2040, and include unmet demand including homeless data published by this department.

Work on translating the revised national housing targets into local authority and tenure specific targets for social, affordable, and private rental and private ownership homes is ongoing, and will utilise data from the CSO (Census data, Geographical profiles of income, Residential Property price index and housing completion data), the Residential Tenancies Board (Rental prices) as well as data published by this Department.

Importantly, the target of more than 303,000 homes is not a ceiling and it is intended to revisit the targets post-2027, after the next Census result become available, reflecting demand and growing industry capacity.