Eoin Hayes (Dublin Bay South, Social Democrats)
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89. To ask the Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment if his Department has carried out a sectoral analysis to identify industries or regions in Ireland most exposed to the new US tariff measures; the outcome of any such analysis; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [17865/25]

Peter Burke (Longford-Westmeath, Fine Gael)
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Ireland remains committed to the principles of free and open trade, which have underpinned our economic success. This brings economic opportunities, creates well-paid jobs and fosters innovation. It also builds economic resilience within a strong rules-based international trading system. The EU also remains dedicated to fostering a stable, balanced, and predictable economic partnership with the United States.

The EU-US trade and investment relationship is the biggest in the world. More than €4.2 billion worth of goods and services are traded between the EU and US daily. This deeply integrated relationship supports millions of jobs on both sides of the Atlantic, and it is crucial to strengthen, not disrupt, this partnership with tariffs that risk driving inflation and causing economic harm. Increased protectionism is not beneficial for citizens or businesses.

Recent economic analysis by the ESRI, in collaboration with the Department of Finance, indicates that potential tariffs arising from US policy changes could adversely affect Ireland’s economy. The severity would depend on the specifics of the measures, their duration, and any reciprocal actions taken. In one of several tariff scenarios modelled, the analysis indicates that after four years of a 25% permanent EU-US bilateral tariff, production in this sector could fall by 3.4% compared to a baseline without such policies. This compares to a 2.1% fall in the domestic sector. This analysis suggests that the traded sector of the Irish economy, due to its strong global links, is likely to be disproportionately impacted by protectionist measures. As outlined in the analysis, two of Ireland’s largest exporting industries are ICT and Manufacturing, and combined, these make up approximately 18.5% of total employment. A rise in protectionism and a slow-down in trade would undermine activity in these sectors, and create an indirect, knock-on effect, in other domestic-facing industries.

My Department’s Annual Business Survey of Economic Impact collects data from a wide range of enterprise agency client firms. This indicates that foreign-owned firms account for approximately 14% of jobs in Dublin, 11% in the West and South-West, 10% in the Mid-West, 7% in the Border, 6% in the South-East, and 5% in the Midlands and Mid-East. This shows that foreign firms – including those from the US – are a significant investor and job creator in each region.

In the current, more uncertain global economic climate, Ireland and the EU must concentrate on those factors within our control. This includes enhancing our competitiveness position. In recognition of the competitiveness challenges facing Ireland, this Government has committed in its Programme for Government, Securing Ireland’s Future, to a new whole of Government Action Plan for Competitiveness and Productivity by January 2026. This plan will cover industrial policy, reducing the cost and regulatory burden on business, investing in infrastructure, digital regulation and reform, energy reform, international trade and research and development, and innovation. The Action Plan will be evidence based, and will be underpinned by consultations with other Government Departments and stakeholders, as well as by research and analysis.

Given the heightened level of international uncertainty, the overarching objective of the Action Plan will be to focus on matters within our control by way of policy changes which can make the Irish economy more competitive and resilient to economic shocks.