Eoin Hayes (Dublin Bay South, Social Democrats)
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60. To ask the Minister for Finance to supply the analysis he received with respect to the impact of global geopolitical and trade events on the economic scenarios facing the country over the next one to five years; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [17854/25]

Paschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael)
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First of all, I would like to note that the imposition of any tariffs is deeply regrettable, creating economic disruption and driving inflation.

Free trade has been at the centre of the Irish and European economies for many decades. However, it is clear that the global economic landscape is changing and the ‘new normal’ will most likely be very different from what we have been used to for many years.

As a small open economy, Ireland is likely to be adversely impacted by a reversal in this trend.

Last month, my Department and the ESRI published an analytical paper which modelled several tariff scenarios in order to assess their potential impact on the Irish economy.

The analysis shows that Modified Domestic Demand – the most meaningful metric for the Irish economy – would be between 1 to 2 per cent below its no-tariff baseline level over the medium-term depending on the extent of tariffs.

The slowdown in domestic growth would be accompanied by lower-than-assumed employment growth, which is expected to be around 55,000 to 85,000 lower compared to a scenario where tariffs are not introduced over the medium-term.

The potential impact on GDP is larger, estimated at around 2½ to almost 4 per cent below a no-tariff baseline, although changes in GDP have less of an impact ‘on the ground’.

Further results from the analytical paper can be found in the link below.

www.esri.ie/system/files/publications/WP798_1.pdf.

Regarding the specific measures announced on April 2nd, I must stress that we need to understand to what degree the measures will be permanent and what the EU and global response will be in order to better assess the potential impact on the Irish economy.

My Department will publish its spring forecasts later this month as part of the Annual Progress Report, formerly known as the Stability Programme Update. This will include an updated assessment of the impact of tariffs on the Irish economy.