Cathal Crowe (Clare, Fianna Fail)
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760. To ask the Minister for Health to provide the estimated full-year cost, and to provide details of the Departments' projections of, the increase in the number of practising GPs between now and 2033. [42851/24]

Stephen Donnelly (Wicklow, Fianna Fail)
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To increase the number of GPs practising across the country and thereby improve access to GP services, significant increases have been made in recent years to the number of new entrant places for GP training. Annual intake to the GP training scheme has been increased by approximately 80% from 2019 to 2024. 350 training places for new entrants were made available for this year with 347 new entrants having commenced training, a 21% increase on last year’s intake of 286. Department research, based on expected GP graduates and GP retirements, indicated that over the coming years for every retiring GP between 1.5 and 3 new GPs will enter the workforce.

In addition, recruitment of GPs from abroad is ongoing under the joint International Medical Graduate (IMG) Rural GP Programme (formerly known as the non-EU GP Training Programme) between the HSE and ICGP. 75 IMG GPs commenced in practice under the programme in 2023; recruitment is continuing this year and funding has been provided to recruit up to 250 more GPs from outside Ireland to the country next year.

At the start of this year, it is estimated that Ireland has a ratio of approximately 68 GPs per hundred thousand population. This ratio is projected to increased to approximately 100 GPs per hundred thousand population by 2030 and to increase further in subsequent years, based on the increased numbers of GP trainees and full recruitment under the IMG Rural GP Programme.

It is not possible to estimate with certainty future full-year costs of a significantly increased GMS GP workforce. This would require detailed modelling, reflecting demographic changes, and the use of numerous assumptions. Under the current GMS contract GPs are reimbursed by the HSE primarily on a capitation basis, and also receive certain fee-per-item payments and practice supports. As capitation payments are made on a per patient basis, the overall capitation cost is driven by the number of GMS patients (medical card and GP visit card holders) rather than the number of GMS GPs. However, practice support payments would be expected to increase. Estimating full-year costs under the GMS scheme for future years would also be dependent on the GMS payment model and payment rates applicable, which may differ from the current model and payment rates.