Richard Bruton (Dublin Bay North, Fine Gael)
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839.To ask the Minister for Housing, Planning, and Local Government how the updated National Planning Framework envisages the future split in house building across the categories of: rural one-off housing; village growth; town growth; growth in satellite areas of the five cities and in the five cities themselves; and if he will make a statement on the matter.[35025/24]

Alan Dillon (Mayo, Fine Gael)
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The draft First Revision to the National Planning Framework (NPF) was published by Government for public consultation on 10 July 2024, which will run until 12 September 2024. To date, a number of submissions have been received in relation to the draft from a range of public bodies, sectoral groups and members of the public and these submissions are currently being reviewed by my Department, with consideration been given to bringing forward a number of amendments to the document before it is presented to Government for final approval. As such, it should be noted that the National Planning Framework, as published in 2018, currently remains in effect.

As part of the broader body of work undertaken to inform the draft First Revision to the NPF, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) was engaged to provide updated population projections to 2040, based on demographic and econometric modelling and having regard to the results of Census 2022 and other factors with potential to influence fertility, mortality and migration trends. Under the baseline scenario, the research projects that the population of the State will increase to approximately 5.7 million people by 2030 and 6.1 million by 2040. This projection forms the central core trajectory of projected population growth and underpins the strategy set out in the draft First Revision to the NPF.

A cornerstone policy of both the existing and the proposed revised NPF is the achievement of a greater regional balance in population and employment growth. The goal is to see a roughly 50:50 distribution of growth between the Eastern and Midland region, and the respective Southern, and Northern and Western Regions, with 75% of the growth to take place outside of Dublin and its suburbs.

The draft First Revision to the NPF, in the same manner as the 2018 NPF, also targets the five cities (Dublin, Cork, Limerick, Galway and Waterford) for 50% of overall national growth, with large and smaller towns, villages and rural areas accommodating the other 50%. The draft revision also proposes to retain the important role of the five regional centres (Drogheda, Dundalk, Athlone, Letterkenny and Sligo,) as focal points for compact growth as part of the strategy’s approach to strengthen Ireland’s overall urban structure.

The current incremental, and ongoing, shift to more regionally-balanced growth supported by urban centres of scale will be important in ensuring effective regional development and in supporting competitiveness, economic prosperity, environmental sustainability as well as climate adaptation.

This will be achieved while also strengthening Ireland’s rural fabric and supporting the communities who live there by planning for the future growth of rural areas, including addressing decline, with a special focus on activating the potential for the renewal and development of smaller settlements, while also continuing to support managed and sustainable growth in rural areas.

Specific housing targets for urban and rural areas in each local authority functional area are currently set out in the respective Core Strategies of the 31 City and County Development Plans (as may be applicable) having regard to the hierarchy of settlements of different scales in each local authority area and informed by the targets contained in the NPF and reflected in the Regional Spatial and Economic Strategies.

Ministerial Guidelines published under Section 28 of the Planning and Development Act 2000 on ‘Housing Supply Target Methodology for Development Planning’ complement the objectives of the NPF and have introduced a standardised national approach, to be applied by each planning authority in projecting Housing Supply Targets in their Development Plan over the six-year period of each plan.

It is anticipated that these guidelines and the Regional Spatial and Economic Strategies, will be reviewed once the First Revision to the NPF is finalised and to reflect the updated policy structures proposed in the Planning and Development Bill 2023, which is expected to be signed into law shortly.