Written answers

Tuesday, 23 July 2024

Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection

Social Insurance

Photo of Gerald NashGerald Nash (Louth, Labour)
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1373.To ask the Minister for Employment Affairs and Social Protection the projected surplus (or deficit) in the social insurance fund for 2024, and each year to 2030; and if she will make a statement on the matter. [32728/24]

Photo of Heather HumphreysHeather Humphreys (Cavan-Monaghan, Fine Gael)
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The Minister for Social Protection is legally required to have an Actuarial Review of the Social Insurance Fund undertaken at five yearly intervals.

The purpose of the review is to determine the extent to which the Fund may be expected, in the long term, to meet the demands in respect of payment of benefits and other payments. The review takes account of the adequacy or otherwise of contributions to support benefits and other payments as well as other matters relevant to the current and future financial condition of the Fund.

The most recent Actuarial Review of the Social Insurance Fund was published in March 2023 and was in respect of the position at the end of 2020. One of the main findings of the Review was that the Social Insurance Fund would register annual surpluses up to the mid 2030s at which time it would return to an initial small deficit, increasing markedly thereafter.

The table below taken from the Actuarial Review sets out the projections of Social Insurance Fund surplus/shortfall, receipts, expenditure and total cumulative reserve out to 2030.

I trust this clarifies the matter for the Deputy.

Year Receipts (in €Bn) Expenditure Surplus/(Shortfall) Projected Balance of Fund
2020 10.6 14.1 -3.5 0.5
2021 11.8 14.9 -3.1 0
2022 14.2 11.5 2.7 2.7
2023 14.8 12.0 2.8 5.4
2024 15.4 12.7 2.7 8.1
2025 16.0 13.3 2.6 10.8
2026 16.4 13.9 2.4 13.2
2027 16.8 14.8 2.0 15.2
2028 17.1 15.2 1.9 17.1
2029 17.5 15.8 1.6 18.8
2030 17.8 16.5 1.3 20.1

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