Pearse Doherty (Donegal, Sinn Fein)
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483.To ask the Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform if provision has been made in either voted current spending or budgetary decisions in table 1 of the summer economic statement, with respect to future public service pay agreements, in each of the years 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029 and 2029, respectively. [31891/24]

Rose Conway-Walsh (Mayo, Sinn Fein)
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491.To ask the Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform the projected increase in public sector pay bill inclusive of pensions out to 2030; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [32121/24]

Paschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael)
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I propose to take Questions Nos. 483 and 491 together.

The recent Public Service Pay Agreement covers the years 2024 through to 2026. The full cost of this agreement is €3.6 billion over the period. The Existing Level of Service (ELS) provisions in the Summer Economic Statement (SES) reflect the impact of the costs of this agreement.

As outlined in the SES, there is an ELS provision of 3½ per cent of the current expenditure base for the period 2026 to 2030. As there is no public service pay agreement in place beyond 2026, the ELS amounts in the SES for the period 2027-2030, which are based on technical assumptions, are set at a level to take into account a range of factors including the impact of demographics and changes in pay rates over this period.

As noted in the SES, the ELS amounts will be re-estimated each year with such a reassessment post 2026 also taking into account the impact on these technical assumptions of the parameters of any future public service pay agreement.

Pearse Doherty (Donegal, Sinn Fein)
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484.To ask the Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform to confirm if a contingency reserve, previously totalling €4.5 billion in the stability programme update, is provided in voted current spending in table 1 of the summer economic statement in each of the years 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029 and 2029, respectively; the amount in this reserve in each of those years; a breakdown of this allocation across programmes such as: Ukraine related expenditure, Covid-related expenditure, international protection expenditure, EU funds and Brexit-related expenditure, transport expenditure, and so on, in each of those years. [31893/24]

Paschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael)
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While we operate in an uncertain international environment with wars in Ukraine, Middle East and Africa, and deal with certain legacy impacts of the pandemic, it is appropriate to maintain a contingency reserve within the overall expenditure amounts across the years 2025 to 2030 in line with what was previously set out in the Stability Programme Update (SPU).

In Budget 2024 a sum of €4.5bn was allocated for non-core items that are now aligned with the contingency reserve. These reflect costs that driven by external developments or additional EU funded projects that must be taken account of in the expenditure ceiling. The allocation in 2024 covered pressures such as our humanitarian response to the arrivals fleeing war in Ukraine (€2.5bn), legacy Covid issues (€1.3bn) mainly in the Health area, EU funding related projects (€0.35bn) primarily under the EU National Recovery and Resilience Plan and certain other payments including under the Mother and Baby Home payment scheme.

The €4.5 billion provision outlined for the Contingency Reserve in the SPU will be fully utilised in 2025 in meeting current and capital needs, primarily across Health (and is included in the overall 2025 Health allocation set out in the SES), Ukraine and IPAS related costs. This will also provide for allocations related to certain EU funded programmes, broadly in line with this year’s amounts, and smaller demands across a limited number of other areas. In relation to the balance of the contingency reserve, it is expected that savings in expenditure in relation to Covid and other items funded within the overall amount for this year will arise and will be utilised to offset pressures on international protection expenditure.

The final amounts in relation to each area to be funded from the contingency reserve will be determined as part of the Estimates process.

The requirements in relation to expenditure in future years to be funded from the contingency reserve will be considered on an annual basis as part of the Estimates process taking into account, in particular, developments in the international environment.