John Brady (Wicklow, Sinn Fein)
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82. To ask the Minister for Education and Skills the number of students in primary, secondary, and third level education, by county, over the past five years, in tabular form; and if she will make a statement on the matter. [30488/24]

Norma Foley (Kerry, Fianna Fail)
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The number of students enrolled in our education system is something I and my Department keep under constant review. The requested data in tabular form will be sent to the deputy directly.

Primary school enrolments in Ireland peaked in 2018, reaching 567,772 students. However, there has been a steady decline each subsequent year, with enrolments dropping to 558,143 by the 2022/23 academic year. This decline was partially offset by the inclusion of Ukrainian pupils in 2022/23. I wish to take this opportunity to thank school communities and stakeholders at a local and national level across Ireland for their engagement, collaboration and support in accommodating Ukrainian pupils in Irish primary and post-primary schools and their continuing support over the last number of years.

Despite the overall downward trend at the national level, specific counties such as Leitrim, Mayo, and Roscommon have experienced consistent growth in primary enrolments over the past five years up to 2022/23.

Post-primary enrolments have shown a sharp increase from 2018 to 2022, with a rise of 43,493 students. Roscommon, Wicklow, and Meath have seen the highest growth rates in post-primary enrolments, reflecting the demographic changes and potential migration patterns within these areas. Conversely, Westmeath, Offaly, and Leitrim have exhibited the lowest growth rates in post-primary enrolments.

As part of our planning for the future, my Department undertakes regular modelling exercises. The latest models show that primary school enrolments are projected to continue to decline, with numbers expected to fall from around 558,000 in 2023 to approximately 533,000 by 2026 and further down to about 499,000 by 2030, before rising again. This anticipated reduction reflects broader demographic shifts, including lower birth rates and changing migration patterns.

For post-primary education, the number of students is expected to increase from around 417,000 in 2023 to about 430,000 by 2026. However, this growth is projected to reverse slightly, with enrolments declining to approximately 418,000 by 2030. The peak in post-primary enrolments is thus expected to occur in 2026.

In terms of junior infants, there is an expectation of about 5,000 fewer children entering this initial stage of primary education in 2026 compared to 2022. This decline will likely follow the overall national trend and be reflected in county-specific data.

The overall national trends in primary and post-primary enrolments are anticipated to be mirrored at the county level. Counties like Leitrim, Mayo, and Roscommon may continue to see increases in primary enrolments despite national declines. Similarly, the counties with significant post-primary enrolment growth, such as Roscommon, Wicklow, and Meath, may maintain their upward trends, while those with minimal growth, such as Westmeath, Offaly, and Leitrim, might see more stable or slight increases.

With regards to third level data, the Higher Education Authority (HEA) is responsible for the collecting, analysis and dissemination of student and graduate data from all HEA-funded higher education institutions. The latest available HEA data relates to enrolments in the 2022/2023 academic year and is available on www.hea.ie.

The data and projections indicate significant changes in the educational landscape of Ireland over recent years, and children progressed through their education journey from Primary and into Post-Primary. The trend established in recent years is expected to continue the coming years. In the immediate term, education providers can expect declining primary school enrolments. However, local pressures will likely remain in rapidly growing areas and will be monitored closely. As stated, my Department expects a peak in post-primary enrolments to occur in 2026, with the peak intake into first year having just occurred in the 2023/24 school year. Addressing the specific needs of counties experiencing divergent trends will be crucial in ensuring equitable and effective educational provision across the country.