Sorca Clarke (Longford-Westmeath, Sinn Fein)
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204. To ask the Minister for Education and Skills further to Parliamentary Questions Nos. 281, 282 and 283 of 16 April 2024, the projected additional cost to the Exchequer each year from 2024 to 2030 respectively for the school transport scheme as per the phased implementation of the review, with a breakdown of the additional mainstream pupils and SEN pupils above current numbers that would be provided with school transport under this phasing each year to 2030; and the average annual per-pupil cost for transporting mainstream pupils and SEN pupils respectively from 2024 to 2030, in tabular form. [27139/24]

Norma Foley (Kerry, Fianna Fail)
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The School Transport Scheme is a significant operation managed by Bus Éireann on behalf of the Department of Education. In the current school year over 161,600 children, including over 135,000 pupils travelling on primary and post primary services, 19,800 pupils with special educational needs, and 6,800 pupils who have arrived to Ireland from Ukraine are transported on a daily basis to primary and post-primary schools throughout the country.

The total cost of the scheme in 2023 was €382.02m.

It is estimated that an additional 100,000 children, above the current pupil numbers on transport, could be accommodated on the mainstream scheme by 2030, at which point due to demographics numbers will decline somewhat thereafter but with an expected increase of 80,000 pupils on current school year numbers by 2040.

The overall spend in 2024 for the school transport scheme is estimated at €444m. This cost includes the cost of implementing certain recommendations arising from the review. To achieve our ambition to expand and improve the scheme, i.e. that it carries 100,000 additional students, will require increasing costs over time to €672m in 2030.

If we do not implement the recommendations of the scheme, financial and economic modelling shows that the costs of the scheme will rise to €678m in 2030 in any case.

This is because the comprehensive set of recommendations if implemented will leverage four major factors:

• Creating opportunities for SEN children to travel on mainstream transport with the appropriate supports, should they so wish.
• Creating greater access to local provision for children with SEN so that they have to travel less distance to access appropriate educational provision for their needs.
• Decreasing demographics which will see spare capacity increase over time on the buses.
• Greater integration with public transport where appropriate.

It must be noted that there are certain assumptions and projections used in compiling these costs, as follows:

1. It is assumed the current years’ costs are the base costs.
2. Costs will continue to grow at the current rate out to 2031.
3. Savings to be made on the SEN scheme are anticipated as a result of inclusivity on mainstream services, it is assumed in year 1 an uptake rate of 5%, increasing over the next four years to a 20% uptake rate in 4th year of implementation.
4. Is it assumed that costs associated with the reduction in parental fees and with additional services to cater for the increased demand brought about by the cost of living incentives, will be replaced by the review costs.
5. Ukrainian costs will continue as required.