Éamon Ó Cuív (Galway West, Fianna Fail)
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315. To ask the Minister for Housing, Planning, and Local Government if he intends on reviewing the National Planning Framework in view of the unforeseen and extraordinary growth in population since the statistics and projections that underpinned the NPF were gathered and published and which make the assumptions in the NPF obsolete and the NPF particularly in housing provision provisions much too conservative; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [8678/23]

Darragh O'Brien (Dublin Fingal, Fianna Fail)
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The National Planning Framework (NPF) is the long-term, 20 year strategy for the spatial development of Ireland to promote a better quality of life for all, with sustainable economic growth and an environment of the highest quality as key underlying principles. The National Planning Framework (NPF) published in 2018, replaced the National Spatial Strategy and is the overall spatial planning and development strategy for Ireland. The NPF, together with the National Development Plan 2021, combine to form Project Ireland 2040 the overarching policy and planning framework for the social, economic and cultural development of Ireland.

The NPF strategy is at an early stage in its implementation. The associated Regional Spatial and Economic Strategies (RSESs) were adopted in 2019 and 2020. The review of city and county development plans to align with the NPF is ongoing. When completed it will be the first time that there has been an integrated hierarchy of statutory spatial plans in Ireland. Sectoral strategies in areas such as transport, water and enterprise have also been reviewed and align to the NFP strategy. While the transition towards the NPF strategy will take time significant progress has been made in aligning policy across all levels of government with the NPF. This need to allow for transition overtime has been factored into growth targets at a regional and county level.

It is important to note that the Planning and Development Act, 2000 (as amended) includes in-built mechanisms to allow for regular revision and replacement of the NPF. Such revisions are relevant to reflect changing circumstances that have taken place since the NPF was published. It is also important to note that, at this early point in the lifecycle of the NPF, its population projections are, statistically, approximately matching those preliminary figures from Census 2022. For example, preliminary results from Census 2022 show that overall, national population growth is broadly in line with the NPF population projection for 2022. The NPF projected a population of just over 5.1m people in Ireland in 2022 and the Census now indicates 5.123m people (+20,000). However, the distribution of growth over the 2016-2022 period remains weighted in favour of the east with more than half of population growth happening in the Eastern and Midlands Region. This is counter-balanced by examples of counties that have under-performed in comparison to NPF projections for 2022, in particular Cork, Limerick and Galway.

While these NPF projections and the preliminary returns do indicate that the overall national population figures that are accurate, it is important to also acknowledge that since the Census took place, there are geo-political factors that could not have been factored into NPF projections on future growth. The war in Ukraine and the resultant refugee numbers arriving in Ireland since March 2022 will likely mean a significant increase in population numbers since Census 2022 was taken.

The Act requires the Government to either revise, replace or state why the Government has decided not to revise, every 6 years after the publication of the NPF. Section 20C (5) specifically states that:

“every 6 years after the date of publication of the National Planning Framework, the Government shall either –

(a) Revise the framework or replace it with a new one, or

(b) Publish a statement explaining why the Government has decided not to revise the framework and include in the statement an indication of a date by which it will be revised or a new National Planning Framework will be published”.

Therefore, such a revision, which would examine a range of factors that will influence how we manage future growth in a planned, productive and sustainable way, is currently being considered.