Duncan Smith (Dublin Fingal, Labour)
Link to this: Individually | In context | Oireachtas source

651. To ask the Minister for Health if he will outline his information in relation the extent and causes of the current excess mortality rate; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [8563/23]

Stephen Donnelly (Wicklow, Fianna Fail)
Link to this: Individually | In context | Oireachtas source

The Department of Health and the HSE keep under review a range of population health and epidemiological indicators to assess the impact of health threats in Ireland. The Department of Health does not produce estimates of excess mortality. However, the Department works closely with the Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC) and other stakeholders to monitor estimates of excess mortality.

There are a number of different methodologies used to estimate excess mortality. All estimation methodologies include caveats and limitations. There is therefore no single set of data on excess mortality.

The Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC) has monitored excess mortality in Ireland since 2009, using registered deaths data reported to HPSC on a daily basis from the General Register Office (GRO). HPSC monitors excess mortality as part of a wider European Mortality monitoring network known as EuroMOMO www.euromomo.eu/. EuroMOMO is a European mortality monitoring activity, aiming to detect and measure excess deaths related to seasonal influenza, pandemics and other public health threats.

The latest analysis of all registered deaths in Ireland up to 29th January 2023, using the standardised EuroMOMO algorithm has shown that there is excess pneumonia and influenza mortality observed over a three-week period in December 2022 and January 2023 (weeks 51 2022-1 2023) and excess all-cause mortality in the 75-84-year age group observed over a two-week period in December 2022 (during weeks 51 and 52 2022).

These data are provisional due to the time delay with death registration in Ireland. In Ireland the period allowed for registration of a death is three months. A country-specific adjustment function was applied to correct for the typical delay in registrations of deaths in Ireland. Nonetheless, estimates of excess mortality for the most recent weeks are reported with some uncertainty and should be interpreted with caution. Estimates of excess mortality in recent months will continue to be updated as additional information becomes available.

HPSC anticipates that when further deaths are registered over the coming weeks, additional excess mortality for the 2022/2023 winter period will be observed. It is likely that this excess mortality will be observed for at least a 4-5-week period in December 2022 and January 2023.

Excess mortality has been observed during previous periods when influenza viruses circulated at high levels in Ireland, and during certain periods of the COVID-19 pandemic. Influenza activity was at very high levels in Ireland during December 2022 and early-mid January 2023, with a high number of influenza hospitalisations reported. Other important factors that may impact excess mortality include the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, circulation of other respiratory viruses, impacts of cold weather, an ageing population, health seeking behaviour and access to healthcare.

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) publishes official statistics on mortality in Ireland and publishes quarterly and yearly statistics on registered deaths through their Vital Statistics publications. The latest published data is for Quarter 2 2022 and data is provisional. Provisional data for Quarter 3 2022 will be published in March and for Quarter 4 2022 in June. This will include data on cause of death and allow more detailed analysis of mortality trends in this period.

The Department of Health will continue to actively monitor and review all available data on mortality as it becomes available.