Joe Carey (Clare, Fine Gael)
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238. To ask the Minister for Housing, Planning, and Local Government further to Parliamentary Question No. 91 of 26 October 2022, if he is satisfied that the methodology being used to determine housing supply targets for local development plans is sound; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [61544/22]

Peter Burke (Longford-Westmeath, Fine Gael)
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Further to work commissioned by the Housing and Planning Divisions of my Department, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) published a report into structural housing demand in Ireland to 2040, in December 2020. The ESRI research report “Regional Demographics and Structural Housing Demand at County Level” projected an annual new household demand figure for each county from 2016 to 2040, for a number of different development scenarios, including the National Planning Framework (NPF) scenario which supports balanced regional development and the consolidation of cities, towns and other urban areas.

Subsequently, a Ministerial Circular, and Ministerial Guidelines - ‘Housing Supply Target Methodology for Development Planning, Guidelines for Planning Authorities’ under Section 28 of the Planning & Development Act, 2000 (as amended), were issued to all local authorities. The Guidelines introduced a standardised national approach, based on the ESRI data, to be applied by each planning authority in projecting Housing Supply Targets for each specific six-year period, when reviewing city or county development plans, that are consistent with adopted national and regional growth targets in the National Planning Framework and Regional Spatial and Economic Strategies.

The Housing Supply Target is quantified as an overall number of housing units to be planned for in the development plan process of each local authority. The guidelines issued provide a clear and consistent approach for local authorities when preparing county and city development plans in relation to future housing development. 

The preliminary Census 2022 results indicate that the population of Ireland and consequent overall level of housing demand is broadly in line with that projected by the ESRI for the same period.  There is some variation with regard to regional distribution, which means that the outcome is closer to the 'business as usual' as opposed to the NPF projection scenario, but this is unsurprising after only 4 years of a long-term strategy.

Notwithstanding population growth and distribution, the Housing Supply Target (HST) methodology remains valid for development plan purposes. The HST methodology as issued, allows for a transition from the projected 'business as usual' scenario to the NPF scenario in the years to 2027. These targets also take into account annual housing demand that hasn't been met between 2016 and the start of each development plan period, which is carried forward and together with new demand arising, averaged over the six year plan period in each case. There are therefore housing targets that need to be worked towards and achieved in each local authority area, in the years ahead. 

In addition to the HST guidance, Section 28 ministerial guidelines for Development Plan preparation were issued in June 2022. These guidelines provide clear mechanisms that planning authorities may use appropriately in providing zoned housing land in excess of that required to meet their identified six-year targeted housing need. They also clarify that land which is zoned and serviced should not generally be dezoned in order to ensure that there is an adequate supply of zoned housing land to meet housing demand.  

More detailed Census 2022 results will be released in 2023 and this population information will be further analysed in light of the wider planning policy and housing development framework. The outcome of this review process will include an updating the 2020 housing projections work undertaken by the ESRI.