Gerald Nash (Louth, Labour)
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236. To ask the Minister for Finance the reason that the projected cost of the help to buy scheme is listed as €83 million in Budget 2023 documentation given that the full-year cost in 2022 will be substantially more; the expected underlying level of applications for the help to buy scheme in 2023; the estimated average payment for same; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [48533/22]

Paschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael)
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Help to Buy is a demand-led scheme which may be subject to a broad range of variable factors.

As such, it is not possible to forecast with certainty for 2023 the expected number of applications or the estimated average payment for approved claims. Neither is it possible to give a precise estimate of cost outturn for 2023.

For the purposes of the Budget 2023 documentation, a figure of €175 million was estimated as the cost of the Help-to-Buy scheme for each of the next two years, 2023 and 2024.

This estimate was derived using published Revenue annual statistics for the scheme for 2021 (www.revenue.ie/en/corporate/documents/statistics/tax-expenditures/help-to-buy-annual-report-2021.pdf) and the end-August monthly Revenue statistics which were the most up-to-date available (www.revenue.ie/en/corporate/documents/statistics/tax-expenditures/help-to-buy-stats.pdf).

Assessed together, the data contained in these reports indicated that the cost of the scheme for the first 8 months of 2022 was some €116.3 million. An extrapolation of this cost out over 12 months provided an estimated figure of €175 million for the full year 2022.

The extension of the scheme is indicated at €83 million in the Budget 2023 documentation as a portion of the cost is considered to be accounted for in the tax base.