Steven Matthews (Wicklow, Green Party)
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72. To ask the Minister for Housing, Planning, and Local Government if he will report on the development patterns of residential units; if the number being built and their locations are in adherence with the National Planning Framework; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [36465/22]

Peter Burke (Longford-Westmeath, Fine Gael)
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The preliminary Census results confirm that total national population growth is broadly in line with overall NPF projections. The NPF strategy is to shift the spatial development pattern towards more regionally balanced, city-focused and compact growth, over time, and the pattern to date may be summarised under three spatial headings:-

1) Regional Balance – this is to achieve more regionally balanced population growth, split roughly 50:50 between the Eastern and Midland Region (EMRA -which includes Dublin, Kildare, Louth, Meath and Wicklow), and the rest of the Country;

2) City and Regional Growth Drivers – to underpin regional balance, this is to target 50% of projected population growth in the five cities as drivers of regional development, with the balance of growth targeted throughout the Country. As part of this, there are also five cross-border and regional driver towns identified in parts of the Country that are not wholly within city catchments;

3) Compact Urban Growth – targeting 50% of new housing growth in the five cities within the existing built-up footprint, on either ‘infill’ (may not have been previously developed), or ‘brownfield’ (previously developed) lands. The NPF also targets 30% of new housing growth in settlements elsewhere, on infill and brownfield lands.

Approximately 35,000 new homes per annum are required over the next 10 years. The Housing Supply Target (HST) methodology breaks this down for each local authority and enables planning and monitoring of housing delivery on a continuous, rolling basis, while also allowing for flexibility. When HST was applied to local authorities in 2021, all but one needed to significantly increase overall housing output, with 22 out of 31 needing to do this by more than 100%.

CSO Data from the 3-year period 2019-21 provides early indication of the recent regional pattern of alignment. While housing development activity has increased to more than 30,000 new homes started in 2021, just over 60% of this activity in terms of permissions and completions, as well as commencements, remains concentrated in Dublin and the EMRA region.

While this indicates a divergence in the pattern of residential development against the NPF strategy, it reflects legacy pre-NPF County Development Plans that were in place during that period. The first round of post-NPF development plans are being adopted from 2021 and most will be completed in 2022 and 2023. In addition, more regionally balanced, employment and skills-led and infrastructure-supported economic growth will underpin regional housing demand, but will take time to achieve, through implementation of investment set out in the National Development Plan 2021-30, in conjunction with the NPF which will be reviewed in 2023.

While the proportion of housing commencements in Dublin as a whole in 2021 (single year) is broadly in line with the NPF target, both the proportion and level of housing growth in the four regional cities are significantly less than that targeted. Only around 30% of housing overall is being delivered in Cities and their suburbs, whereas the target is 50%, although both planning permission and commencement data indicate a shift in the pattern towards the target. Housing commencement data for Cork City in 2021 is up 86% over the preceding three years and is an early indication that the pattern is changing – there are similar positive turns in Limerick, Galway and the regional growth driver towns, albeit from a very low base in each case.

Within Dublin, there has been a deficit in housing starts into 2020 and 2021 below the level required to meet projected demand arising in the City. This in part continues to manifest as completions and commencements over and above the level for which there is projected local demand, in outlying counties such as Kildare, Meath and Wicklow.

My Department is pursuing a range of planning and housing-related policy initiatives and actions to address particular constraints surfacing on more brownfield/urban compact growth areas. These measures are embodied in the continued implementation and roll-out of Housing for All, especially housing affordability and viability, land activation, the enhanced role of the LDA and planning reform more broadly, through the AG-led review of the Planning Act.

In the cities and urban areas where housing development is being delivered, more compact forms such as apartments are now apparent, with apartments comprising 25% of national completions overall, 31% in urban areas as a whole and 37% of all commencements nationally, in 2021. In Dublin, 76% of housing starts were for apartment development in 2021 and the corresponding figure for the four regional cities was 42%. The trend beyond 2021 is similar, with 61% of permissions granted in 2021 to date for apartments, including 90% in the five cities.

In summary, NPF compact growth targets within cities and urban areas are close to being met, but only where housing development is actually taking place in such areas. There is still a significant gap between actual city and suburbs-focused growth and NPF targets, especially in parts of Dublin and the four regional cities, in favour of increased housing output in the commuter hinterlands surrounding the cities, in particular the counties around Dublin. Notwithstanding an overall upward trend in terms of completions, commencements and permissions, balanced regional growth targets remain challenging, although the implementation of the NPF and the NDP are at an early stage, with most County Development Plans yet to be updated.

National population growth is set to continue and it is apparent that current trends do not yet fully align with the development patterns envisaged in the NPF. In that context, the recent publication of the preliminary findings of the 2022 Census at a city and county level will also be considered, in the context of review and update of the NPF, although it must be highlighted that we are still only 4 years into a more than 20 year strategy. My officials will continue to monitor these early patterns and preliminary findings, which will inform the forthcoming review of the NPF.