Pearse Doherty (Donegal, Sinn Fein)
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396. To ask the Minister for Employment Affairs and Social Protection if modelling with respect to deficits of the Social Insurance Fund included increases in other welfare payments over the time horizon considered by the report of the Commission of Pensions; if so, the basis of those welfare payment increases whether indexed to inflation, wage growth and so on; the rates of those increases in percentage or nominal terms; and the way that this expenditure contributed to the forecast deficits of the Social Insurance Fund; and if she will make a statement on the matter. [35527/22]

Heather Humphreys (Cavan-Monaghan, Fine Gael)
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Section 10 of the Social Welfare Consolidation Act 2005 (as amended) makes provision for the undertaking of an actuarial review of the social insurance fund at five yearly intervals. The purpose of the review is to determine the extent to which the fund may be expected, in the longer term, to meet the demands in respect of payment of benefits and other payments. The review takes account of the adequacy or otherwise of contributions to support such benefits and payments as well as other matters relevant to the current and future financial condition of the fund.

The most recent actuarial review, published in 2017, considered the financial position of the social insurance fund as of 31 December 2015.  The review’s projections covered the 55-year period from 2016 to 2071.  In reaching its projections, the review includes analyses and assumptions on a range of factors including, but not confined to, real earnings growth, expenditure on short-term and long-term benefits including pensions, and inflation.   

In order to quantify the scale of the fiscal sustainability challenge facing the social insurance fund in the period to 2070, updated projections, taking into account the changes that have taken place to the State pension system since 2015, are included in the Report of the Commission on Pensions which was published in October 2021.  

The next actuarial review of the social insurance fund in respect of the year ending 31 December 2020 is underway. The review is expected to be completed later this year and a copy will be laid before each House of the Oireachtas within six months of its completion in accordance with the statutory requirement to do so.

I trust this clarifies the matter for the Deputy.