Brian Stanley (Laois-Offaly, Sinn Fein)
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79. To ask the Minister for Finance the projected total national debt by the end of 2022; and the percentage of this figure that related to the bank bailout. [30901/22]

Paschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael)
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Gross National Debt (GND) at end-2021 was €237.2bn. This is just over €30bn higher than it was at end-2019 i.e. pre-pandemic. However, the Exchequer has at its disposal significant cash and other assets. Therefore, the net National Debt – that is the debt after the deduction of these assets – is lower. It stood at €208bn at end-2021. This is c. €20bn higher than it was at end-2019, pre pandemic.

The Stability Programme Update (SPU), published by my Department in April 2022, includes forecasts for General Government Debt (GGD). GGD is a measure of the total gross consolidated debt of Government. It includes National Debt measured on a gross basis, along with debt of the wider general government sector. GGD is forecast to decrease to €233.8 billion by end-2022 (from €235.9 billion at end-2021), the equivalent of 96.5 per cent of GNI*. The baseline forecasts within the SPU are based on the assumption that the war in Ukraine slows the pace of economic expansion in Ireland, rather than reverses it.

Turning to the second element of the Deputy’s Question related to the Bank Bailout, in general terms, the proceeds of borrowing, as well as revenues such as tax revenue are lodged to the Exchequer account. No specific tranches of borrowing were undertaken solely for the purpose of recapitalising the banking sector. Therefore, it would be extremely difficult to accurately quantify the part of the national debt that relates to the borrowing undertaken to recapitalise the banks or provide a useful percentage figure that related to the banking stabilisation measures. It is generally the case that public debt is not repaid as such, but rather is refinanced, or rolled over into new debt, when it comes to mature.

The Office of the Comptroller and Auditor General (C&AG) has previously – in its Reports on the Accounts of the Public Service – provided estimates of the net cost of the banking stabilisation measures as at end-2014, end-2016 and end-2018.

The most recent report, containing estimates as at end-2018, stated that the net cost to the State from banking stabilisation measures up to the end of 2018 was around €41.7 billion. This estimate is after taking account of the estimated value at the end of 2018 of the State’s investments in banks (€8.4 billion), and NAMA’s retained earnings (€4.2 billion).

The 2021 edition of the C&AG’s Report on the Accounts of the Public Service, due for publication later this year, will include updated estimates of the net cost of banking stabilisation measures and associated debt service costs, as at end-2021.