Pearse Doherty (Donegal, Sinn Fein)
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25. To ask the Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform if he will disaggregate the estimated cost of €30,000 to service and accommodate each Ukrainian refugee for the year 2022; his views on the comments made in the latest Fiscal Assessment Report by the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council that this figure is an upper bound in terms of likely costs; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [31291/22]

Michael McGrath (Cork South Central, Fianna Fail)
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The Stability Programme Update, published in April 2022, set out a contingency provision of €3 billion for Ukraine humanitarian supports for 2023. At the time, an estimated 4½ million people had fled Ukraine, with the majority arriving in European Union Member States.

This prudent provision is included to address the crisis while not impacting on the Core Expenditure amounts for delivery of public services and of the National Development Plan. Given the evolving nature of the situation, it is difficult to provide exact costings as the number of arrivals fluctuate on a daily basis. The demographic profile of arrivals, a key determinant of costings, is also subject to considerable change.  

Initial estimates suggest costs in the region of a half billion per 10,000 refugees. These estimates were based on a number of assumptions including the use of emergency hotel accommodation for which there are significant capacity constraints. The cost per refugee is highly sensitive to the accommodation solution provided—accommodation solutions are currently being developed and may change over the medium term—this complicates providing an annual cost per refugee.

The provision of €3 billion in 2023 would allow for a cost of c.€30,000 per refugee assuming c.100,000 refugees. This is in line with the international experience. Based on OECD analysis during the 2015 refugee crisis, significant amounts were spent by European countries:

- Germany who received as many as 900,000 asylum seekers spent 0.5% of GDP;

- Sweden which received 163,000 asylum seekers (1.6% of total population) spent 1.35% of GDP.

Applying these percentages to 2023 forecasts of GNI* in Ireland would give a range of €1.3 billion to €3.5 billion. Given that c. 100,000 refugees would represent 2% of the Irish population, it is more likely that the costs would be towards the upper end of the range.

This was supported by a bottom up assessment of likely expenditure in key areas, based on assumptions regarding accommodation solutions, demographics and social protection costs. It is too early to estimate the time horizon for, and level at, which supports will be required. The €3 billion contingency included for 2023 will be revised as more information becomes available. Costs will be monitored on an ongoing basis and estimates will be updated as appropriate, taking into account any revised assessments in relation to overall numbers of refugees.