Rose Conway-Walsh (Mayo, Sinn Fein)
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532. To ask the Minister for Finance the projected GNI* figure for 2023; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [21194/22]

Paschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael)
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My Department published updated macroeconomic projections as part of the draft Stability Programme Update (SPU) in mid-April. Against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine and the associated economic and geopolitical instability, energy and other commodity prices have soared. This in turn, has fed through to rising inflationary pressure which has dampened domestic economic activity.  

My Department is now projecting GNI* growth of 3¾ per cent this year and just over 3 per cent in 2023. This represents a downward revision of close to -1.5 percentage points in 2022 and close to ½ a percentage point in 2023. This downward revision is a result of the squeeze on household real incomes and a softer investment outlook in the face of mounting inflationary pressure and heightened uncertainty.

Of course, given continued geopolitical instability, the margin of uncertainty around these projections is significant, with the balance of risks firmly tilted to the downside. Any further escalation of the war or a protracted disruption to supply chains arising from it could have significant ramifications for global growth. In addition to the ongoing conflict, Irish exporting SMEs remain exposed to adverse impacts arising once the UK Government implements full border checks and procedures under the Trade and Cooperation Agreement. The expected impacts are incorporated in the Department’s projections, but could turn out to be more significant than anticipated.