Darren O'Rourke (Meath East, Sinn Fein)
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268. To ask the Minister for Transport, Tourism and Sport the estimated yearly carbon emissions reduction savings as modelled by his Department by increasing the number of persons using public transport as opposed to private cars by 20,000, 50,000 and 100,000 in tabular form; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [4794/22]

Eamon Ryan (Dublin Bay South, Green Party)
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My Department has engaged in rigorous analytical work since early 2021 to prepare the transport abatement measures in CAP21. Key to this is a radical shift to sustainable mobility. This includes a 2025 target metric of 125,000 additional public transport and active travel journeys per day, increasing to 500,000 by 2030.  Achieving this target, along with reducing ICE car kilometres by 10%, is estimated to deliver c. 1.4 MtCO2eq. abatement.

The increased number of daily sustainable journeys will be achieved by ramping up investment to provide more attractive active travel and public transport options to promote modal shift away from car dependence. In addition, the reduced use of fossil-fueled cars over that time will be achieved through various demand management and behavioural change measures. Daily journeys on public transport are estimated to increase from 12% to 21% by 2030. My Department will also continue to review and refine measures to deliver additional abatement in a fair and equitable manner.

However, the modelling used for CAP21 transport measures does not estimate the carbon emissions in the manner the Deputy has requested. There are any number of variables at play in estimating carbon impacts from modal shift including journey distance, profile of car use, urban or rural journey location amongst other factors. 

I have, therefore, referred the Deputy's question to the NTA to provide a direct update on what analysis the model can provide in terms of modal shift and carbon reduction impacts. Please advise my private office if you do not receive a response within ten working days.