Darren O'Rourke (Meath East, Sinn Fein)
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129. To ask the Minister for Communications, Climate Action and Environment the modelling that was used by the Government to calculate the emission reduction targets under the 2021 Climate Action Plan; if it was the same as those used in the Climate Change Advisory Council’s Carbon Budget technical report. [61522/21]

Eamon Ryan (Dublin Bay South, Green Party)
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The approach and scope of the modelling used for determining the indicative emissions reduction targets for the 2021 Climate Action Plan (CAP) and for the modelling used in developing the Climate Change Advisory Council’s (CCAC) proposed carbon budget programme were, in both cases, closely determined by the requirements established under the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development (Amendment) Act 2021– specifically the requirement that Ireland must cut its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 51% by the end of this decade.

Ireland’s 2021 CAP is underpinned by modelling inputs from the broad spectrum of expertise available to the Government, as well as contracted technical input from a range of bodies and organisations. It was also informed by a public consultation and call for expert evidence. Outputs from the modelling have assisted in developing indicative ranges of emissions reductions for each sector of the economy by 2030 to achieve the 51% reduction, and set us on a pathway to achieving net zero emission by 2050. This included indicating the types of actions needed to deliver on our climate targets. The indicative sectoral ranges will be replaced by legally binding specific sectoral ceilings in the 2022 Climate Action Plan, following their adoption by Government once the economy-wide carbon budgets are approved by the Oireachtas.

Some of the experts that fed into the preparation of the Climate Action Plan may separately have provided analytical input to the CCAC as part of its work on the carbon budgets. However, it is important to note that the CCAC acts as an independent advisory body, and any research or modelling undertaken by the CCAC is carried out under that mandate. This includes the development of the CCAC’s recently proposed carbon budget programme. Details of the specific analysis used by the CCAC is outlined in its carbon budget technical report, which can be found at www.climatecouncil.ie.

Darren O'Rourke (Meath East, Sinn Fein)
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130. To ask the Minister for Communications, Climate Action and Environment the expected emissions reductions by 2030 from the Government’s plan to deliver the equivalent of 500,000 homes retrofitted to a BER of B2 cost optimal or carbon equivalent and to install 600,000 heat pumps in residential buildings in tabular form. [61523/21]

Darren O'Rourke (Meath East, Sinn Fein)
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131. To ask the Minister for Communications, Climate Action and Environment the expected emissions reduction from the National Retrofit Plan by 2030. [61524/21]

Darren O'Rourke (Meath East, Sinn Fein)
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132. To ask the Minister for Communications, Climate Action and Environment the expected emissions reduction from the National Retrofit Plan and the annual breakdown in tabular form. [61525/21]

Eamon Ryan (Dublin Bay South, Green Party)
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I propose to take Questions Nos. 130 to 132, inclusive, together.

The 2021 Climate Action Plan (CAP 2021) committed to reducing emissions from the residential and commercial buildings sectors to between 3.5 - 4.5 Mt CO2eq. by 2030, from 7.9 Mt in 2018. CAP 2021 did not, however, include either cumulative or annual emissions savings on the specific contribution of the Plan’s retrofit or heat pump deployment targets.

CAP 2021 also set out an ambitious National Retrofit Plan detailing how the targets to retrofit 500,000 dwellings and to deploy 600,000 heat pump installations would be met. CAP 2021 also included the following key commitments for the residential and commercial buildings sectors:

- Strengthening the existing NZEB requirements for new dwellings to effectively ban fossil fuels in new dwellings;

- Ramp-up of zero emissions heat in commercial buildings; and

- Increased targets for the roll-out of district heating.

Aside from reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, residential retrofit brings additional benefits, including reduced energy costs, improved comfort and health, less dependency on fossil fuels, and improvements in indoor and outdoor air quality.

The National Retrofit Plan estimates that, between 2019 and 2025, almost 185,000 home energy upgrades will be delivered with over 83,000 to a B2/cost optimal level. When the emissions savings from the non-B2 upgrades are included, this is the equivalent of 120,000 B2 upgrades over the period. As a result, there will a need to deliver, on average, approximately 75,000 B2-equivalent home upgrades per year from 2026 to 2030 to achieve the overall target of 500,000 by 2030.