Thursday, 18 November 2021
Department of Finance
172. To ask the Minister for Finance further to Parliamentary Question No. 78 of 10 November 2021, the assumptions on which the estimates are based particularly with regard to household and general carbon consumption in each of the years to 2030; if they are based on projections; and if so, the projections and the details of same in tabular form. [56823/21]
The most recent projection provided by my Department for the period 2021 to 2030 is €9.2 billion in additional carbon tax revenues. The annual breakdown of these receipts was provided in the PQ reply of 10 November 2021. As stated in the same PQ reply, projections are point in time exercises, and are revised periodically to take account of factors such as changes in the macroeconomic environment, policy decisions by Government and other factors.
My Department’s carbon tax receipts projection for the period 2020-2030 factor in a declining carbon tax base reflecting changing behaviour in response to the tax, amongst other factors. This estimates use a base of 21.5 metric tonnes, or Mt, of CO2, which reflects the estimated carbon tax base in 2019, informed by carbon tax receipts for that year.
The carbon tax base projections for the period 2020 to 2030 reflect the trajectory of official Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) emissions projections. Specifically, this adjustment reflects the EPA’s non-ETS ‘WAM’ projections for percentage growth in annual equivalent Mt of CO2. This particular scenario is used to inform my Department’s projections as it identifies non-ETS (EU Emissions Trading System) emissions. These emissions are reflective of emissions subject to the carbon tax, while in general EU ETS emissions are not subject to the carbon tax. It also reflects a ‘with additional measures’, or WAM scenario, which includes the Government’s commitment to a €100 per tonne carbon tax by 2030.
The annual projections for the period 2021 to 2030 are available at the following link: www.epa.ie/publications/monitoring--assessment/climate-change/air-emissions/EPA-Irelands-Greenhouse-Gas-Emissions-Projections-report-2020-2040v2.pdf.