Alan Farrell (Dublin Fingal, Fine Gael)
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67. To ask the Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform the plans that are under way to prepare for the changing demographics that will see an increase in the median age of the population, which is currently 38 years, and a corresponding increase in age-related public expenditure as forecast in the Trends in Public Expenditure Review Paper produced by his Department during summer 2021; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [45437/21]

Michael McGrath (Cork South Central, Fianna Fail)
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The challenges arising from changing demographics and an ageing population are recognised in the Programme for Government – Our Shared Future. In particular, the Programme for Government provided for the establishment of a Commission on Welfare and Taxation and a Commission on Pensions.

The terms of reference for the Commission on Welfare and Taxation include: a review of how best the taxation and welfare system can support economic activity and income redistribution, whilst promoting increased employment and prosperity in a resilient inclusive and sustainable way, and ensuring that there are sufficient resources available to meet the costs of public services and supports in the medium and longer term. The terms of reference also set out that the Commission will examine what changes, if any, should be made to the social insurance system, including structure and benefits coverage, while ensuring sustainability. In carrying out this work, the terms of reference outline that the Commission will consider the output of the Pensions Commission regarding sustainability and eligibility issues in respect of State Pension arrangements.

The Commission on Welfare and Taxation is to submit its report to the Minister for Finance by no later than 1 July 2022.

The demographic challenge also arises from a growing population. Ensuring that the necessary infrastructure is in place to meet this challenge is one of the priorities in the National Development Plan. In this context the Summer Economic Statement set out growth of almost 12% in Exchequer capital investment in 2022, with this investment of €11.1 billion as a percentage of modified gross national income (GNI*) being 4.8%.

Given the requirement to meet the longer-term challenges including from demographics, we must continue to reform and improve the budgetary process in order to enhance Ireland’s budgetary framework. The budgetary reforms introduced in recent years, including Performance Budgeting and Equality Budgeting, are focussed on providing the evidence base to support the efficient and effective delivery of services that have a positive impact on people's lives. This work is being further enhanced with the development of the Wellbeing Framework for Ireland that can inform efforts to improve the impact of public policy. This focus on performance and impact of expenditure is an essential element of the expenditure framework as we plan for steady sustainable increases in expenditure over the coming years.