Peadar Tóibín (Meath West, Aontú)
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221. To ask the Minister for Finance the current level of employment in the State as a percentage of pre-pandemic levels of employment. [45259/21]

Paschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael)
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The Labour Force Survey, published by the Central Statistics Office on a quarterly basis, is the official source of labour market statistics for Ireland. It includes the official rates of employment which are based on International Labour Organisation (ILO) standardised concepts and definitions.

The latest edition of the Labour Force Survey – issued on 23rd of June this year – covered employment levels on an ILO basis for the first quarter of 2021.

On an ILO basis, the survey reported that some 2.25 million people were in employment (on a seasonally-adjusted basis) during the first quarter. This indicates a decrease in employment of around 92,000 persons relative to pre-pandemic levels in the final quarter of 2019. By this measure, the level of employment in the first quarter was approximately 96 per cent of pre-pandemic employment.

However, the ILO measure of employment does not fully account for the impact of the pandemic on the labour market. For instance, around half of recipients of the pandemic unemployment payment (PUP) were recorded as employed under the ILO approach in the first quarter

Based on the CSO’s covid-adjusted measure of employment (non-seasonally adjusted), which treats all PUP recipients as unemployed, the level of employment at the end of March stood at 1.79 million, a decline of around 570,000 persons. By this measure, employment was around 76 per cent of pre-pandemic employment levels in Q4 2019.

The CSO is due to publish estimates for Q2 2021 employment levels, as part of its next iteration of the Labour Force Survey on the 24^thSeptember.

Peadar Tóibín (Meath West, Aontú)
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222. To ask the Minister for Finance the study he or his Department undertook before he concluded that Ireland’s employment levels will be back to pre-pandemic levels by 2023; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [45260/21]

Paschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael)
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My Department conducted a macroeconomic analysis of the labour market in April, as part of the Stability Programme Update (SPU) forecasting round. The labour market estimates as published in the SPU in April this year indicate that employment is estimated to return to its pre-pandemic levels during 2023.

My Department’s approach to forecasting employment growth entails the application of statistical models and other best practice analytical methods. It is important to note that the forecasts published with the SPU are subject to a statutory and independent endorsement process undertaken by the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council. The employment projections as published in SPU this year were endorsed by the Fiscal Council.

Updated projections – taking account of the most recent developments in the macro economy – will be published with Budget 2022 on October 12^thfollowing an endorsement process with the Fiscal Council.