David Cullinane (Waterford, Sinn Fein)
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2972. To ask the Minister for Health the status of the research programme in healthcare reform; and if a review will be published. [39728/21]

Stephen Donnelly (Wicklow, Fianna Fail)
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The Research Programme in Healthcare Reform is a programme agreed between the Department of Health and the ESRI which commenced in July 2014. The broad objectives of the programme are to apply economic analysis to explore issues in relation to health services, health spending and population health, in order to inform the development of health policy and the Government’s healthcare reform agenda. Since its commencement, the programme has produced 31 publications. Full details can be found here:

www.esri.ie/current-research/research-programme-in-healthcare-reform

www.esri.ie/research/health-and-quality-of-life/hippocrates-model

The first major publication of the research programme involved an examination of the cost implications of a change to a multi-payer, Universal Health Insurance model, as proposed in the 2014 White Paper on Universal Health Insurance (UHI), ‘The Path to Universal Healthcare’. This research was published in November 2015 as ESRI Research Series Report 45 ‘An Examination of the Potential Costs of Universal Health Insurance in Ireland’.

The next major phase of the programme was the development in the years from 2015 to 2017 of the demand phase of the Hippocrates projection model for healthcare demand and expenditure. Projections of demand from 2015 to 2030 were published in October 2017 as ESRI Research Series Report 67 ‘Projections of demand for healthcare in Ireland, 2015-2030: First report from the Hippocrates Model’. This report was based on new ESRI projections for population growth, the first to be published based on the 2016 Census. The report contained the most comprehensive mapping of public and private activity in the Irish healthcare system to have been published.

In December 2020, the ESRI published ‘Projections of expenditure for public hospitals in Ireland, 2018–2035, based on the Hippocrates Model’ which provides projections of expenditure for public acute hospital and adult acute psychiatric in-patient services in Ireland for the years 2018–2035 based on new ESRI projections for population and economic growth, both of which consider the impact of COVID-19. A range of alternative projections are presented reflecting alternative assumptions about population growth, trends in health and life expectancy, policy change, and costs. This report provided the most comprehensive mapping of Irish public hospital expenditure to have been published to date. This report was launched alongside the reports: The Survey and Statistical report ‘Utilisation of public acute hospital services in Ireland — baseline analysis for the Hippocrates model’ and the Working Paper ‘Paying more to wait less: Estimating the cost of reducing Ireland’s public hospital waiting lists’.

At present, the ESRI is finalising the report ‘Projections of Expenditure for Primary, Community and Long-Term Care Ireland 2019–2035, Based on the Hippocrates Model’, due for publication shortly. This will provide the most comprehensive mapping of expenditure in these areas to be published in Ireland to date.

My Department’s participation in this research programme is continuously monitored and reviewed to ensure the programme is delivering on its stated objectives and achieving value for money.

I hope this clarifies the matter for the Deputy.