David Stanton (Cork East, Fine Gael)
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599. To ask the Minister for Education and Skills the number of primary school students projected to transition to secondary level in each of the four school planning areas of Cobh, Midleton and Carrigtwohill, Fermoy and Youghal, respectively in each of the years 2026 to 2028; the number of students who have transitioned to second-level in each of these four school planning areas in each of the years 2017 to 2020; and if she will make a statement on the matter. [22077/21]

Norma Foley (Kerry, Fianna Fail)
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As the Deputy is aware, in order to plan for school provision and analyse the relevant demographic data, my Department divides the country into 314 school planning areas and uses a Geographical Information System, using data from a range of sources, including Child Benefit and school enrolment data, to identify where the pressure for school places across the country will arise and where additional school accommodation is needed at primary and post-primary level.

The anticipation of projected post primary school place requirements is based, in the first instance, on the level of enrolment at each standard (class) in primary schools and the historic transfer patterns between primary and post primary schools. 

As the Deputy maybe aware the demographic review for 2020 has now been completed and the most recent projections are currently being considered.  As part of this review, my Department completed projections up to 2027.  Based on the information available at the time of that demographic exercise, the current projections for first year intake numbers in the Cobh, Midleton_Carrigtwohill, Fermoy and Youghal school planning areas for 2026 and 2027 are as follows:

It should be noted, however, that residential development in an area can contribute to increased school place requirements.  For that reason, my Department includes information received from local authorities in respect of current or planned residential developments in its consideration of future school place projections.  Of the four school planning areas referenced by the Deputy, Midleton_Carrigtwohill and Cobh have the highest level of residential development activity, as notified by the local authority, and this may result in demand additional to the numbers outlined above. This is informing deliberations in respect of any potential school accommodation requirements. The projections will be updated on a rolling basis and will take account of the additional student numbers which materialise when planned residential development is completed and occupied.

As requested, the numbers of students who have enrolled in First Year in post primary schools in each of these four school planning areas in each of the years 2017 to 2020 are set out below:-