Michael McNamara (Clare, Independent)
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1333. To ask the Minister for Health if the recent report of the Health Information and Quality Authority which found that that the third wave of the Covid-19 pandemic started on 22 November 2020 during the second lockdown, which lasted until 1 December 2020, undermines his confidence in the efficacy of lockdowns as a means of combatting Covid-19. [13958/21]

Stephen Donnelly (Wicklow, Fianna Fail)
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I understand that the Deputy is referring to the ‘Epidemiological report of COVID-19 cases in Ireland during the third pandemic wave; November 22nd to February 21st 2021’ from the Health Protection Surveillance Centre (available here: 

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The report states that the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic started on 22nd November before the beginning of the phased easing of restrictions on December 1st.

As the Deputy will be aware, on the 15th October, the NPHET recommended that the country move to Level 5 restrictive measures to protect public health in the first instance, particularly in relation to those most vulnerable to the severe outcomes of COVID-19; to ensure the safe delivery of health services for health needs unrelated to COVID-19; to enable safe provision of childcare services and to ensure that schools could remain open. At that time, community transmission of COVID-19 was widespread and there was growing evidence that health system capacity would be overwhelmed if stronger measures were not taken urgently.

In its subsequent letter of 26 November 2020, the NPHET highlighted the positive impact of those Level 5 measures implemented in October on the disease trajectory:

“Over the past five weeks, through widespread commitment and adherence to the public health restrictions put in place by Government, much of the potential impact of this second wave has been averted, the objectives advised by the NPHET have been met and transmission of the disease has reduced significantly. This is particularly evident by reference to the experience of almost all other countries in Europe. In early October, Ireland was mid-table in Europe in terms of disease incidence. The measures in place since then have seen a sharp reduction in incidence, hospitalisation, critical care admissions and mortality. In that time period, most of Europe continued on a path of increasing incidence which led to levels of hospitalisation, ICU admission and mortality which have been largely averted in Ireland by the Government’s pre-emptive action”.

The NPHET estimated that if case numbers and mortality in Ireland had followed the EU27/UK average at the time, this trajectory would have resulted in a peak incidence of 2,600 cases per day in Ireland in early November, and a death rate of approximately 40 deaths per day by 26 November. Actual case numbers and mortality were much lower. 

The NPHET also examined the likely impact of the public health measures introduced in October by comparing model projections of likely case numbers if Level 3 measures had been maintained from that date (assuming R between 0.9 to 1.2) with actual case numbers to 24th November.

These modelling estimates show that the public health measures introduced are likely to have prevented between 21,000 and 54,000 cases to end-November 2020. The prevention of these cases would, in turn, avert at least 800-2,200 hospitalisations, 130-320 ICU admissions and 100-270 deaths to end-November 2020. Further details of these analyses are available in the letter to the Minister for Health, dated 25th November which can be accessed here: 

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The Deputy will also be aware of the very significant impact that current Level 5 measures have had on suppressing transmission of COVID-19 since the beginning of this year. 

It is clear from experience to date during all three waves of infection, that population wide restrictive measures have been essential to suppress transmission and regain control over the disease. It is also true that any restrictive measures are only as successful as the public’s compliance with those measures, and we have frequently seen pre-emptive action on the part of the public both when restrictions have been increased and when they have been relaxed. This was the case in late November and was noted in NPHET’s letter of 3rd December which states that “measures of mobility and contact appear to have increased in anticipation of the recent relaxation of Level 5 measures”.