Written answers

Wednesday, 27 January 2021

Department of Education and Skills

Departmental Reports

Photo of Rose Conway-WalshRose Conway-Walsh (Mayo, Sinn Fein)
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591. To ask the Minister for Education and Skills if the demographic trend in the Department of Education report Projection of Demand for Full-Time Third-Level Education 2018 – 2040 published in November 2018 are the most up-to-date and the projections currently being used by his Department; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [3922/21]

Photo of Rose Conway-WalshRose Conway-Walsh (Mayo, Sinn Fein)
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593. To ask the Minister for Education and Skills the number of additional third-level places that will be needed in the coming academic year to meet the demographic demand based on both scenario 1 and scenario 3 of the Department of Education report Projection of Demand for Full-Time Third-Level Education 2018 – 2040 published in November 2018; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [3924/21]

Photo of Simon HarrisSimon Harris (Wicklow, Fine Gael)
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I propose to take Questions Nos. 591 and 593 together.

The Projections of Demand for Full-Time Third-Level Education 2018 – 2040, published in November 2018, are the most recent projections currently available for higher education. It is intended to publish an updated set of projections for higher education later this year.

The scenarios outlined in the projections are driven by two key variables - the projected transfer rate from post-primary to higher education, and the projected increase in international students. Scenario 1, which estimated a steady transfer rate and a moderate increase in international enrolments, projects enrolments of 199,258 in 2021. Scenario 3, which predicts an increased transfer rate and a significant increase in international enrolments projects enrolments of 203,956 in 2021. These enrolments include both undergraduate and postgraduate full-time students, and represent an increase of 13,784 and 18,482 respectively on full-time enrolments in 2018 which is the latest year for which data is available.

However these projections were developed several years prior to the current pandemic, and therefore do not take into account the impact that COVID-19 has had on demand for higher education. There is more volatility than usual in demand for higher education due to factors such as reduced opportunities in the economy, and uncertainty around students travelling internationally both to and from Ireland. My Department will continue to monitor demand for higher education carefully, and take action as necessary to ensure the availability of a full range of further and higher education options for the class of 2021.

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