Brendan Howlin (Wexford, Labour)
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233. To ask the Minister for Trade, Enterprise and Employment the details of the most recent estimate undertaken by his Department on the impact of Brexit post-January 2021 on employment by sector and region; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [33655/20]

Brendan Howlin (Wexford, Labour)
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234. To ask the Minister for Trade, Enterprise and Employment the details of the analysis undertaken by his Department to date on the impact of Brexit post-January 2021 on youth unemployment; the specific measures being implemented to mitigate this impact; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [33656/20]

Leo Varadkar (Dublin West, Fine Gael)
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I propose to take Questions Nos. 233 and 234 together.

My Department undertook an independent trade analysis study that was published in 2018 entitled "Strategic Implications for Ireland arising from changing EU-UK trading relations". This study examined the implications of Brexit for the Irish economy and trade, quantifying the impact of possible new barriers to trade which might emerge as a result of Brexit.

The study found that regardless of the scenario modelled, the Irish economy was still expected to record strong, positive growth out to 2030. Brexit would have a dampening impact, however, resulting in a lower growth rate than would otherwise have occurred.

The study provided analysis of the likely impact of Brexit on key sectors of the Irish economy. Five sectors were identified that account for 90% of the impact and these are: Agri-food, Pharma-chemicals, Electrical Machinery, Wholesale & Retail, and Air Transport.

The study also provided analysis of the likely impact of Brexit on employment. Significantly, in the model used in the study, the long run impact of Brexit on the labour market indicated that this would be employment neutral. This was based on the premise that changes in labour demand across sectors arising from Brexit would lead over the 10 year horizon of the study to redistribution of workers across sectors, with wages in each skills group adjusting in these sectors accordingly.

This analysis, which was subsequently updated earlier this year, examined the trade implications arising from the adoption in 2019 of the Withdrawal Agreement and the Revised Political Declaration (RPD) between the EU and the UK.

By its nature the 2018 study, and the latest iteration of that study, presents a broad trade analysis that concentrates on the long run economic context and potential employment impacts of different Brexit scenarios. It does not examine at a more granular level the economic impacts at sub-sector or regional level, or the employment impacts affecting different skill levels of the labour force.

The type of analysis that the deputy refers to is more likely to be found in publications by the Central Bank. In its latest bulletin in early October, the Central Bank highlights the divergence between the continuing strength of the economy's exporting sector, dominated by pharmaceuticals, and the downturn due to Covid-19 restrictions brought upon the labour intensive domestic sector that has shed jobs.

At national and regional level COVID-19 has obviously had a detrimental impact on levels of employment generally and, in particular on youth employment. This is further compounded with the onset of Brexit on 1 January next and I agree with the Deputy that this is a serious and ongoing concern. It is one that my colleague the Minister for Social Protection is engaged with and is actively looking at ways to mitigate the worst effects of the pandemic and Brexit on the employment opportunities for our young people.