Pearse Doherty (Donegal, Sinn Fein)
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101. To ask the Minister for Finance the expected deficit in 2021 in nominal and percentage GDP terms; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [28039/20]

Paschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael)
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As the Deputy will be aware, the unprecedented economic situation of the last six months has meant that medium-term economic and fiscal forecasts are subject to an exceptional level of uncertainty.

My Department’s most recent official forecasts, published in the Stability Programme Update, were, accordingly, produced on a short-term basis, as per guidance from the European Commission. At that time, a general government deficit of €14 billion, or 4 per cent of GDP was estimated for 2021. While the situation remains highly uncertain, the Department of Finance is currently undertaking work on a full set of updated economic and fiscal forecasts as part of preparations for Budget 2021. It is anticipated a general government deficit, based on a no-policy-change, is estimated to be in the order of 4.5 to 5.5 per cent of GDP, which equates in nominal terms to a deficit of €15 to €19billion.

The continuing uncertainty means that my officials will take into consideration all possible data points and relevant information, such as the recently published Q2 National Accounts data and the September Exchequer returns, to ensure that the forecasts are as accurate as possible. Projections produced earlier would be based on less information and, as a result, would likely be less accurate.

The updated set of economic and fiscal forecasts, which will take into account the fiscal impact of the July stimulus package, taxation receipts to-date and any decisions made in the context of the Budget will be published next month.