Pearse Doherty (Donegal, Sinn Fein)
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83. To ask the Minister for Finance the estimated cost of amending the employment wage subsidy scheme by categories (details supplied) for those with turnover of 50% to 75% compared to reference periods under the scheme to the end of December 2020, 1 January to 31 March 2021 and 1 April to 31 December 2021. [24518/20]

Paschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael)
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As regards the Deputy’s question, the existing cost estimate for the Employment Wage Subsidy Scheme (EWSS) as set out below is based on the scheme being implemented in its totality as currently configured.

It is not possible at the present time to provide a reliable estimate of the cost impact of alterations to individual elements of the scheme (such as the rates and qualifying criteria).However, once Revenue has received EWSS returns relating to September, and there is a base to benchmark a cost estimate of the elements suggested by the Deputy, the question may be revisited.

The existing cost estimate for the scheme is an additional €2.25billion.  This is comprised of €1.35bn until the end of 2020 and €0.9bn in 2021.

These costs are on the basis that the EWSS will support around 350,000 jobs into the beginning of 2021. Revenue have estimated that 360,000 workers were supported by the Temporary Wage Subsidy Scheme (TWSS) when it concluded at the end of August, so this expected level of coverage of EWSS is considered to be a reasonable assumption. 

However, the cost of the EWSS will depend on the overall uptake of the scheme which will become fully apparent after the first claims have been processed in October 2020.  I am advised by Revenue that, as of 15 September 2020, there were 33,348 employers registered for the EWSS which is considered a strong level of participation being proportionately more than half of all those who availed of the TWSS over the duration of that scheme.

It is emphasised that these cost projections are subject to review and for every additional 50,000 qualifying employments over the duration of the scheme, the cost is estimated to increase by €0.25 billion. 

As the scheme is demand led I have been clear that a significant increase in the number of claims may require a policy review and re-evaluation of the terms of the scheme.

This is why the enacting legislation (Financial Provisions (Covid-19) (No. 2) Act 2020) provides that adjustments may be made to certain elements of the scheme. Following monitoring and regular assessments of the EWSS, such adjustments may be made by the Minister for Finance via secondary legislation, having consulted with my colleagues the Minister for Social Protection and the Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform. The specific elements (set out in subsection 21 of the Act) are:

- the end date of the measure;

- the rate of subsidy and applicable income threshold per employee; and

- the turnover test to determine qualifying employers.

Pearse Doherty (Donegal, Sinn Fein)
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84. To ask the Minister for Finance the number of employees with gross weekly pay of less than €151.50 who received payments under the temporary wage subsidy scheme since the beginning of its operation; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [24519/20]

Pearse Doherty (Donegal, Sinn Fein)
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85. To ask the Minister for Finance the number of employees with gross weekly pay of less than €151.50 who received payments under the temporary wage subsidy scheme in August 2020. [24520/20]

Paschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael)
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I propose to take Questions Nos. 84 and 85 together.

Revenue has advised me that it cannot accurately provide the numbers of employee recipients of the TWSS by their level of gross weekly pay due to the required format used by employers when filing (employee) payslips. For example, gross pay was required to be reported as €0.01 where the employer did not make an additional ‘top-up’ payment to the employee. Where the employer made an additional payment to an employee, this ‘top-up’ amount was required to be reported as gross pay. Therefore, for most TWSS employees their gross pay as reported to Revenue for the duration of the scheme reflected their ‘top-up’ payment only (over 80% received ‘top-up’ payments) and not their actual weekly pay, inclusive of the TWSS.

Revenue has analysed the numbers of TWSS recipients where the sum of gross weekly pay (€0.01 or the ‘top- up’ amount) plus the net subsidy amount was less than €151.50. This analysis suggests there may be around 20,000 such employees, with approximately 5,000 of these having exited the TWSS by the end of the scheme.  However, given the issues noted above, this should be considered highly provisional and be very likely subject to revision.

Pearse Doherty (Donegal, Sinn Fein)
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86. To ask the Minister for Finance the estimated cost of tax policy items in the July stimulus in 2020 and 2021, disaggregated by measure; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [24617/20]

Paschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael)
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Tax relief measures with a value of approximately €1.4 billion (net cost to Exchequer approximately €900 million) were introduced in the July Stimulus package.

The estimated cost of the reduced interest on tax debts measure is €5m in 2020 and €20 m in 2021.

The Stay and Spendscheme will cost an estimated €270m in total (upper-estimate). The cost of the scheme will arise across the two years 2021 and 2022.  

The help to buy measure will cost an estimated additional €18m in total. 

Based on previous estimates of tax expenditures on the cycle to work scheme, an estimated tax expenditure of €0.5m in 2020 and €1.5m in 2021 could arise.

The estimated cost of the enhanced and accelerated income tax relief for trading losses incurred by the self-employed  is once-off proposal is €150m in 2020.

It is estimated that the reduction in the standard rate of VAT will cost some €440 million in total, €160 million in 2020 and €280m in 2021.

The measure on Corporation tax losses has no net cost in the medium term as it is an acceleration of a relief that already exists in the corporation tax code. However, it will release up to €450 million of liquidity in the current year to companies currently facing significant cash-flow difficulties.

I should add that it is not possible to provide an estimated cost for the debt warehousing measure because it is not clear when the warehoused debt will be paid.  The zero interest period will cover most of 2021 for most taxpayers but taxpayer behaviour after that cannot be predicted.