Barry Cowen (Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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14. To ask the Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform if an ex post analysis has been undertaken on demographics cost provisioned in each budget; if there will be a new analysis for the years ahead; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [17986/19]

Paschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael)
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The demographic figures used to inform budget negotiations are based on an ex-ante analysis carried out by the Irish Government Economic and Evaluation Service (IGEES). Demographic cost pressures from 2017 to 2027 are set out in the IGEES staff paper ‘Budgetary Impact of Changing Demographics 2017 – 2027’ published in September, 2016. This paper is based on figures from Census 2016 and focuses on the areas of Health, Education and Social Protection, which are particularly affected by the changing age profile of the population.

A new analysis is currently being undertaken by officials in my Department. Based on more recent data, this updated paper will examine expected changes in the structure of the population of Ireland and the impact that these changes will have on public expenditure, particularly in the areas of Social Protection, Health and Education. The paper will be published as part of the Spending Review, the third round of which is currently underway. The results of this analysis will inform Budget discussions in relation to 2020 and the medium term.