Niamh Smyth (Cavan-Monaghan, Fianna Fail)
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66. To ask the Minister for Communications, Climate Action and Environment the details of the potential surplus of supply that would be generated by the North-South interconnector to 2027; the reason for disparities between 2017 estimates and 2018 estimates; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [52950/18]

Richard Bruton (Dublin Bay North, Fine Gael)
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The Generation Capacity Statement 2018 covers both Northern Ireland and Ireland, and is produced jointly between the System Operator for Northern Ireland and EirGrid. This is in line with their regulatory requirements to publish forecast information about the power system including an assessment of the balance between supply and demand. The Generation Capacity Statement is updated on an annual basis to ensure adequate capacity is available in the market on an all-island basis and to plan accordingly. The generation portfolio changes over time and the Generation Capacity Statement is a snap shot in time based on the best available information provided by the generators at the time of compiling.

The increase in Northern Ireland generation capacity shown from the 2017 to the 2018 generation capacity statements is likely to be temporary in nature as the main increase is from the assumed continued availability of the coal fired Kilroot generating units and two of the older Ballylumford units. The long term continued operation of these generators needs to be viewed in the context of the decarbonisation of the industry. EirGrid’s expectation is that a combination of better outcomes from the next round of capacity auctions, coupled with the delivery of the North South interconnector will allow for the closure of carbon intensive units in the medium term.

In Ireland, while there is a surplus of plant currently, this surplus is expected to be reduced by the growth in demand and some notified plant closures. By 2024, the absence of the second North South Interconnector has serious implications for the management of supply adequacy. Supply adequacy in both jurisdictions is supported by the North South Interconnector and the figures contained in the most recent capacity statement should not affect the project timelines. The North South interconnector is expected to be operational in Q3 2023.