Joan Burton (Dublin West, Labour)
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199. To ask the Minister for Education and Skills the second level schools in the Dublin area which it is anticipated on the basis of CSO census data will experience a decline in enrolments in excess of 50% over the next ten years in tabular form; his plans to tackle the challenges posed to the existing provision of second level education by changing population dynamics in more established communities in the greater Dublin area; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [7035/18]

Richard Bruton (Dublin Bay North, Fine Gael)
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The information is not available in the format requested by the Deputy. My Department uses data from the Census combined with information from the Primary and Post Primary Pupil Databases to develop projections of full time enrolment at primary and post-primary level. 

The Department’s report, "Projections of Full-time Enrolment Primary and Second Level (2017 – 2035)", published in July 2017, provides the latest set of long-term projections of full-time enrolment in first- and second-level schools. At post-primary level nationally, enrolments are expected to continue to increase until the 2025/2026 academic year, at which point, enrolments at second level are expected to be in excess of 416,800 pupils for the first time in the history of the State.

It is important to note that the national demographic trends and projections of enrolments are not evenly spread and can include significant local and regional variations.  Some areas will decline faster than the national trend and some will continue to need additional accommodation even after the national demand figure falls.

In order to account for such local variations and plan accordingly, the division of the country into 314 school planning areas is necessary to monitor this in greater detail. In this regard, my Department uses a Geographical Information System (GIS) to identify where the pressure for school places across the country will arise. The GIS uses data from a range of sources.

Where demographic data indicates that additional provision is required, the delivery of the additional provision is dependent on the particular circumstances of each case and may, depending on the circumstances, be provided through either one, or a combination of, the following:

- Utilising existing unused capacity with a school or schools,

- Extending the capacity of a school or schools,

- Provision of a new school(s).

The nationwide demographic exercises involving all school planning areas at primary and post-primary level, which will determine where additional school accommodation will be needed in the future, is ongoing at the moment and work in this regard is almost complete.