Catherine Connolly (Galway West, Independent)
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71. To ask the Minister for Communications, Climate Action and Environment the cost-benefit analysis that has been conducted with regard to the cost to the State of not meeting its emissions reduction targets as against the cost of achieving same; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [49053/17]

Brian Stanley (Laois, Sinn Fein)
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77. To ask the Minister for Communications, Climate Action and Environment the precise reduction or derogation that his Department is seeking on the 2020 targets. [49006/17]

Maureen O'Sullivan (Dublin Central, Independent)
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90. To ask the Minister for Communications, Climate Action and Environment the way in which Ireland will address poor performance in comparison with other EU states on reaching climate change targets; and the way in which he plans to address this going forward. [49084/17]

Denis Naughten (Roscommon-Galway, Independent)
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I propose to take Questions Nos. 71, 77 and 90 together.

The 2009 Effort Sharing Decision 406/2009/EC established binding annual greenhouse gas emissions targets for EU Member States for the period 2013 to 2020. For the year 2020 itself, the target set for Ireland is that emissions should be 20% below their level in 2005. This will be Ireland’s contribution to the overall EU objective to reduce its emissions by the order of 20% by 2020 compared to 1990 levels. Ireland’s target is jointly the most demanding 2020 reduction target allocated to EU Member States under this Decision, which is shared only with Denmark and Luxembourg. 

The latest projections of greenhouse gas emissions by the Environmental Protection Agency indicate that emissions from those sectors of the economy covered by Ireland's 2020 targets could be between 4% and 6% below 2005 levels by 2020. The projected shortfall to our targets in 2020 reflects both the constrained investment capacity over the past decade due to the economic crisis, and the extremely challenging nature of the target itself. In fact, it is now accepted that Ireland’s 2020 target was not consistent with what would be achievable on an EU wide cost-effective basis. A European Commission Communication published on 7 November 2017, Two years after Paris – Progress towards meeting the EU’s climate commitments(COM (2017) 646), indicated that in addition to Ireland, Austria, Belgium, Finland, Germany, Luxembourg and Malta are also expected to miss their 2020 EU targets on the basis of current projections. 

Ireland's 2020 target is a binding obligation under EU law and Ireland is not seeking a derogation from it. The legislative framework governing the EU’s 2020 emissions reductions targets includes a number of flexibility mechanisms to enable Member States to meet their annual emissions targets, including provisions to bank any excess allowances to future years and to trade allowances between Member States. Using banked allowances from the period to 2015, Ireland is projected to comply with its emissions reduction targets in each of the years 2013 to 2018. However, our cumulative emissions are expected to exceed targets for 2019 and 2020, which may result in a requirement to purchase additional allowances. While this purchasing requirement is not, at this stage, expected to be significant, further analysis will be required to quantify the likely costs involved, in light of the final amount and price of allowances required.

Ireland's first statutory National Mitigation Plan,  which I published in July of this year, provides a framework to guide investment decisions by Government in domestic measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The Plan sets out what Ireland is currently doing, and is planning to do, to further the national transition objective as set out in the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act, 2015. Although this first Plan will not provide a complete roadmap to achieve the national transition objective to 2050, it begins the process of development of medium- to long-term options to ensure that we are well positioned to take the necessary actions in the next and future decades.

Delivery of the measures in the National Mitigation Plan  will, in many cases, require significant investment. However, decisions on the funding of particular measures will be a matter for Government consideration in the context of expenditure planning in the Estimates and Budgetary processes, and in the forthcoming National Investment Plan for 2018-2027. Individual investment or expenditure decisions will also, in the normal course, be subject to appropriate appraisal in line with the Government's Public Spending Code.

Where relevant, the National Mitigation Plan  already includes information on the expected Exchequer cost of implementing individual measures, either in the context of direct expenditure or in relation to tax foregone. The actual expenditure on a given measure will depend on progress in implementation of each measure, including its possible expansion as a result of additional funding, for which the relevant sectoral Minister retains direct responsibility.

In addition to measures in place, the National Mitigation Plan includes measures under consideration by Government. The potential costs for many of these measures have yet to be quantified and will depend on the basis on which a given measure is adopted for implementation.