Kevin O'Keeffe (Cork East, Fianna Fail)
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387. To ask the Minister for Communications, Climate Action and Environment further to Parliamentary Question No. 452 of 17 October 2017, the way in which the SEAI estimated that the cost to Ireland of not meeting overall renewable energy targets may be in the range of €65 million to €130 million for each percentage point Ireland falls short of the overall renewable energy target; and if his attention has been drawn to the fact that this figure may be much higher for each percentage point that Ireland falls short of its renewable energy targets. [47702/17]

Denis Naughten (Roscommon-Galway, Independent)
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The SEAI's most recent assessment is that Ireland will achieve between 13.2% and 15.2% of its 16% renewable energy target.

As the Deputy has indicated, the SEAI had estimated that the cost to Ireland of meeting a shortfall in our overall renewable energy targets, by means of the purchase of statistical transfers, may be in the range of €65 million to €130 million for each percentage point Ireland falls short of the overall 16% renewable energy target. This is purely an estimate which is based on the cost (range) of the total level of transfers that might be required for Ireland on the basis of assumptions about the level of achievement of renewable generation in Ireland by 2020 (% and absolute renewable deployment across heat, transport and electricity), and the estimated cost per unit shortfall required to be purchased as statistical transfers. These costs vary widely given the uncertainty around the future market price for statistical transfers. The estimate is based on published costs of deployment of UK onshore wind (low end estimates) and offshore wind (high level estimate) available in early 2016 from UK sources. These assumptions were chosen as a reasonable basis as they represent a transfer of prevailing costs from another Member State and they will be kept under review taking account of factors such as the available supply and market costs.

Any requirement for statistical transfers to meet compliance would be undertaken against a background of discussions by the Irish authorities with the EU Commission and relevant Member States. As any purchases arising would be made over an extended period, the costs of acquiring statistical transfers to meet any potential shortfall would be spread over a period of more than one year and in any event the cumulative costs would not be known until 2021, the deadline for completion of all purchases.

While the focus of my Department remains firmly on meeting our 2020 target and on implementation of renewable energy measures, contingency planning has commenced in the Department to explore the potential extent, mechanisms and cost of acquiring statistical transfers.