Thomas Byrne (Meath East, Fianna Fail)
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164. To ask the Minister for Education and Skills the predicted requirement in each of the next three years for new SNAs due only to demographic pressures. [42205/17]

Richard Bruton (Dublin Bay North, Fine Gael)
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The Irish Government Economic & Evaluation Service (IGEES) published a Focused Policy Assessment (FPA) of Data on Special Needs Assistants in August 2016 which is available at:http://www.education.ie/en/Publications/Value-For-Money-Reviews/. 

This FPA forms part of my Department’s commitment to the Public Spending Code (PSC) and evidence informed policy making.

One of the objectives of the FPA was to identify what is required to develop the forecasting capacity of the Department and the NCSE in order to anticipate the level of demand and cost of future SNA requirements and that the provision of this data would be aligned with the planning needs of my Department, the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform and the NCSE with specific reference to the annual budgetary process.

The report found that the primary drivers of the increase in demand for SNAs were:

- The underlying change in the school-age population

- The ratio of students to SNAs

- Increased number of students with an ASD diagnosis

The FPA report recommended that the NCSE provide an End of Year Statement of Demand and a forecast of future demand in mid-April each year, with an updated forecast by mid-June to take account of trends arising during the current year’s application process.

In addition, the method of provision for the additional SNA posts this year has been similar to that for the past six years when decisions were made in late June or early July. This is not a satisfactory approach and in this year’s estimates and in future years, provision will be made for the anticipated extra need in the same way as for other elements of the education system. This will allow for SNA allocations to be notified to schools earlier than in recent years.

Demand over the next 3 years cannot be accurately estimated until the NCSE provides its forecast of future demand for consideration in each of the next 3 years.