Written answers

Tuesday, 10 October 2017

Department of Housing, Planning, and Local Government

National Planning Framework

Photo of Michael McGrathMichael McGrath (Cork South Central, Fianna Fail)
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740. To ask the Minister for Housing, Planning, and Local Government the population and demographic projections for the next 20 years underpinning the approach to the national planning framework - Ireland 2040 Our Plan; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [42279/17]

Photo of Eoghan MurphyEoghan Murphy (Dublin Bay South, Fine Gael)
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The purpose of both the National Planning Framework (NPF) and the corresponding Regional Spatial and Economic Strategies (RSES) is to set long-term national and regional development frameworks within which Government Departments and Agencies, the regional assemblies and local authorities, as well as wider private sector and community interests will work together to ensure proper planning and sustainable development and the optimal development of the country as a whole, in a national, regional and ultimately local context. 

In developing the NPF, it was considered important to establish a strong empirical evidence base to support policy formulation.  In this regard, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), which is an independent research institute with established competence in the type of specialist economic and demographic modelling work required for preparation of the NPF, were commissioned by my Department to carry out relevant research and development.  Key features of its research approach are its strong empirical base, its social and economic policy focus and its coverage of many of the major areas of relevance to current policy issues in Ireland and the European Union. 

The ESRI conducted economic and demographic modelling and continues to prepare future projections in respect of Ireland’s population and economy in the years ahead to 2040. This included the establishment of a new national economic model to generate the type of economic and demographic data required to inform the NPF and assess the impacts of various policy options.  A key aspect of this work was the development of demographic forecasts, based on past trends, and the generation of a range of future spatial development scenarios.  These future scenarios were then tested against the assembled forecast data to inform the future national and regional development scenarios in the NPF, with the NPF indicating approximately an additional 1 million population by 2040 in Ireland.

Over the coming weeks, it is my intention to publish a number of reports underpinning the publication of the Ireland 2040: Our Plan Framework.  This will include an ESRI Demographic and Econometric modelling report, setting out full details in relation to the population and demographic projections.

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