Written answers

Thursday, 18 May 2017

Department of Finance

Economic Growth Rate

Photo of Bernard DurkanBernard Durkan (Kildare North, Fine Gael)
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92. To ask the Minister for Finance if the economy continues to meet its social and economic targets in line with all others within the EU and eurozone; his views on whether corrective measures are required; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [23868/17]

Photo of Bernard DurkanBernard Durkan (Kildare North, Fine Gael)
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93. To ask the Minister for Finance if the economy meets its performance targets under the main economic headings; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [23869/17]

Photo of Bernard DurkanBernard Durkan (Kildare North, Fine Gael)
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96. To ask the Minister for Finance his views on whether the basic fundamental indicators remain positive and constant for the economy notwithstanding the potential threat of Brexit; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [23872/17]

Photo of Bernard DurkanBernard Durkan (Kildare North, Fine Gael)
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99. To ask the Minister for Finance if he is satisfied with the strength of the main economic indictors in view of the challenges of the future; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [23876/17]

Photo of Bernard DurkanBernard Durkan (Kildare North, Fine Gael)
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102. To ask the Minister for Finance his views on whether the economy remains economically competitive; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [23879/17]

Photo of Michael NoonanMichael Noonan (Limerick City, Fine Gael)
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I propose to take Questions Nos. 92, 93, 96, 99 and 102 together.

In general, recent indicators have been very positive, indicating that the economic recovery is continuing at a robust pace. The preliminary estimate for full-year GDP growth in 2016 is 5.2 per cent, based on National Accounts data for the fourth quarter of the year, making Ireland the fastest growing economy in the European Union again last year.

Importantly, domestic demand made a strong positive contribution to growth in 2016 with consumption increasing by 3.0 per cent. This is crucial as domestic sectors are both jobs-rich and tax-rich. This is consistent with the strong labour market performance last year with employment increasing by 2.9 per cent (56,000 jobs) in 2016 on an annual basis. As a result, the unemployment rate fell to 7.9 per cent in 2016.

Recent data published indicate that robust growth in the domestic economy has continued in 2017:

- The volume of retail sales increased by 2.9 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2017. Core sales (excluding motor trades) were up by 5.9 per cent over the same period.

- Expansion in the construction sector continued in April with the Purchasing Managers’ Index for the sector recording its forty-fourth successive month of expansion.

- The Consumer Sentiment Index rose slightly to 102.0 in April 2017, from 101.9 in March. The index remains well above its long run average.

- The seasonally-adjusted monthly unemployment rate for April was 6.2 per cent, down from 8.4 per cent in April 2016.  As a result, the unemployment rate has fallen by 9 per cent since its peak of over 15 per cent in early-2012.

Further, the exporting sector appears to be holding up well despite the weakness in sterling with the value of merchandise exports increasing by 10.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2017 year-on-year. The latest data also show that Ireland continued to record a large current account surplus last year of 4.7 per cent of GDP.

An important factor in strong export performance is competitiveness. In this regard, significant progress has been made in recent years.  The latest figures from the Central Bank of Ireland, show that Ireland's real harmonised competitiveness indicator (a widely used measure of competitiveness in Europe) has improved by over 20 per cent between 2008 and March 2017.

The gains in Irish competitiveness achieved since 2008 have been hard-won through productivity improvements and wage and price moderation. It is important that this competitiveness is preserved and continues to support growth.  This is all the more important given the several sources of uncertainty which could negatively impact on the economic outlook. In particular, the UK’s decision to leave the EU has added to concerns about the international outlook while the change in policy direction by the new US administration has also added to concerns about the international economy. Weaker than expected trading partner growth would negatively impact on Irish growth through reduced exports.

In summary, I am confident that significant economic progress can be made in the years ahead. This positive outlook is reflected in the latest forecasts published by my Department in the Stability Programme Update for 2017. My Department is projecting robust growth this year of 4.3 per cent while medium term growth is expected to average around 3 per cent per annum. The labour market recovery is also set to continue with robust employment growth projected over the coming years and, on this basis, by the end of this decade there will be more people at work in Ireland than ever before.  However, such progress is critically contingent upon implementing appropriate polices and that is what this Government will continue to do.

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