Noel Rock (Dublin North West, Fine Gael)
Link to this: Individually | In context | Oireachtas source

232. To ask the Minister for Finance his views on the European Commission’s raised forecast of GDP growth of the economy of 3.4%; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [10159/17]

Michael Noonan (Limerick City, Fine Gael)
Link to this: Individually | In context | Oireachtas source

The European Commission's 2017 Winter economic forecast was published on 13 February. The Commission is forecasting GDP growth for Ireland of 3.4 per cent this year, a downward revision of 0.2 percentage points relative to Autumn 2016. This is broadly in line with my own Department's forecast of 3.5 per cent growth this year, published as part of Budget 2017. According to these forecasts Ireland is expected to be among the fastest growing economies in Europe this year. 

The dataflow since the Budget has been encouraging indicating that the strong momentum has continued:

- The economy expanded by 6.9 per cent year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2016.

- Exports are holding up well. Service exports have been particularly strong recording double-digit growth, year-on-year, in the third quarter.

- Employment in the fourth quarter of 2016 grew by 3.3 per cent on an annual basis - an increase of over 65,000 jobs.

- Data for 2017 is likewise encouraging with the unemployment rate for January falling to 6.8 per cent, down from 8.6 per cent a year earlier.

On this basis, the economy remains on course for continued robust growth this year. However, we do face considerable economic challenges, notably Brexit, the change in policy direction by the new US administration, and growing uncertainty in the global economy.  This was explicitly recognised in the economic outlook published with the Budget, which detailed risks to the outlook and noted that these are firmly tilted to the downside. 

Updated macroeconomic forecasts will be published by my Department, as part of the Stability and Programme Update, in April this year.