Noel Rock (Dublin North West, Fine Gael)
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737. To ask the Minister for Communications, Energy and Natural Resources the estimated amount the fine will be should the State miss its carbon targets for 2020; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [10168/17]

Denis Naughten (Roscommon-Galway, Independent)
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For each year between 2013 and 2020, Ireland has a Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG) emissions reduction target under the 2009 Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) No. 406/2009/EC. For the year 2020 itself, the target set for Ireland is that emissions should be 20% below their value in 2005. This is jointly the most demanding 2020 reduction target allocated under the ESD, and one shared only by Denmark and Luxembourg.  The 2013 target is based on the average of emissions for the years 2008 -2010. The target for each of the years 2014 through 2019 is on a straight-line trajectory between the targets for 2013 and 2020, and surpluses in one year can be used to cover deficits in any subsequent year.  The average incidence of these targets is a 12% reduction relative to 2005.

In March 2016, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published projected emissions for 2020 which indicate that Ireland’s emissions at that stage could be in the range of 6 - 11% below 2005 levels, depending on whether additional policies or measures beyond those already in place by the end of 2014 are implemented. On a cumulative basis over the period 2013 - 2020, Ireland is projected to have a deficit of between 3 and 12 Megatonnes Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (MtCO2eq). According to the latest inventory published by the EPA in November 2016, GHG emissions for 2015 are estimated to be 59.84 MtCO2eq. This is 3.7% higher than emissions in 2014. 

As I have previously indicated, the shortfall to 2020 projected by the EPA reflects both the constrained investment capacity over the decade between 2008 and 2019 due to the economic crisis (including the impact of the troika programme and the EU fiscal governance requirements), and the fact our 2020 target was very significantly above what would have been cost-effective for Ireland to contribute to the overall EU effort. It now represents a significant challenge to be addressed, including as we look out to 2030. It will be necessary, therefore, to pursue other available options, in addition to the introduction of further policies and measures planned as part of the development of the National Mitigation Plan, if we are to address this gap to target. 

In the first place, this will include the retirement of Annual Emissions Allocations and units from the Kyoto Protocol Flexibility Mechanisms carried forward from 2008-2012 which can be offset against the deficit. If this does not fully address any potential deficit, further carbon units could be purchased. It is not possible to accurately quantify the cost to purchase  notional carbon units at this stage as the cost is dependent on both the quantum and price of carbon units to be purchased at the time.