Michael McGrath (Cork South Central, Fianna Fail)
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70. To ask the Minister for Finance if he will be fully publishing his Department's current assessment of the economic impacts on the Irish economy of a hard Brexit (details supplied); and if he will make a statement on the matter. [3739/17]

Michael Noonan (Limerick City, Fine Gael)
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My Department has been to the fore in producing and funding a number of economic assessments on Brexit, both before and after the referendum. Outputs include:

- A scoping study in November 2015 under the Department of Finance-ESRI joint research programme,

- Initial short-term estimates published in the Summer Economic Statement 2016,

- An in-depth analysis of the possible sectoral and regional impacts of Brexit arising from Ireland's trade relationship with the UK, published with Budget 2017; and,

- A joint research paper with the ESRI that modelled the medium to long term macroeconomic impact of Brexit under a number of scenarios, including a hard Brexit.

All of these outputs have been made public.

In particular, the medium to long term economic impacts of a "hard Brexit" are set out in the November 2016 joint paper with the ESRI - this was the analysis which my officials were referring to.

The paper, which used the new ESRI COSMO macroeconomic model, highlights that the impact on the Irish economy will be significant.  Looking at the effect ten years after a UK exit, a hard Brexit scenario results in the level of GDP being almost 4 per cent below what it otherwise would have been in a no-Brexit scenario; with most of impact coming in the first five years. The level of employment is expected to be 2 per cent below what it would otherwise have been; in other words, employment growth will be slower than would otherwise be the case.  On the public finances side, the deficit and debt ratios would be 1 and 10 percentage points higher.

The Deputy will also be aware that the impacts of a hard Brexit were also considered by the ESRI in a separate analysis in November 2017 that looked at the impact of WTO trade tariffs. The findings in that paper, in broad orders of magnitude, are consistent with those in the joint research my Department published with the ESRI that same month.

I would stress that all of these results are based on a no policy change assumption. To this extent, the measures that I announced in Budget 2017 are a first step in what will be an ongoing process of getting Ireland Brexit ready.

Michael McGrath (Cork South Central, Fianna Fail)
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71. To ask the Minister for Finance if World Trade Organisation rules will apply between the EU and the UK in the event that a trade deal between the UK and the EU is not completed by the end of the Article 50 process; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [3740/17]

Michael Noonan (Limerick City, Fine Gael)
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The responsibility for the development of Ireland's international trade policies is in the first instance a matter for the Minister for Jobs, Enterprise and Innovation.

Across Government the headline priorities for the Article 50 negotiation process remain clear. These are to protect the economy and trade, the Northern Ireland Peace Process, the Common Travel Area and the future of the European Union itself. The Government will defend our national interests and priorities fully within the established legal and political framework for the negotiations. 

Across all sections of Government we have been working intensively in preparing for all eventualities.

My Department has worked with the ESRI on the publication entitled 'Modelling the potential macroeconomic Impact of Brexit on Ireland' which was published in November 2016. Within the paper, and in line with existing international analysis, three scenarios were considered. This includes a scenario where the UK and EU do not conclude a bilateral trade agreement and, instead, the UK exercises its rights under the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) clause of the World Trade Organisation (WTO).  (In practice any proposed UK WTO schedule would have to be agreed by all WTO members.) Our contingency work, rightly, is examining all scenarios. However, we are at the start of a process within which there is expected to be a number of phases. Ireland will participate fully in all of the structures of the EU 27 in preparing for and conducting the negotiations.

Ireland will continue working with both our EU partners and with the UK to maintain a positive, constructive and orderly approach to these negotiations. It is not helpful at this stage to try to pre-empt the outcome of negotiations.