Mick Wallace (Wexford, Independent)
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52. To ask the Minister for Communications, Energy and Natural Resources his views on the findings of the SEAI that greenhouse gas emissions here grew by 5% in 2015; his further views on the projections that Ireland will almost certainly miss EU 2020 emissions targets; the expected fines that will be incurred by the State if it fails to meet these targets; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [38615/16]

Brian Stanley (Laois, Sinn Fein)
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59. To ask the Minister for Communications, Energy and Natural Resources the actions being implemented and the measures being put in place by Departments to ensure Ireland's 2020 targets on greenhouse gas emissions are not missed. [38505/16]

Denis Naughten (Roscommon-Galway, Independent)
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I propose to take Questions Nos. 52 and 59 together.

For each year between 2013 and 2020, Ireland has a Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG) emissions reduction target under the 2009 Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) No. 406/2009/EC. For the year 2020 itself, the target set for Ireland is that emissions should be 20% below their value in 2005. This is jointly the most demanding 2020 reduction target allocated under the ESD, and one shared only by Denmark and Luxembourg.  The 2013 target is based on the average of emissions for the years 2008-2010. The target for each of the years 2014 through 2019 is on a straight-line trajectory between the targets for 2013 and 2020, and surpluses in one year can be used to cover deficits in any subsequent year.  The average incidence of these targets is a 12% reduction relative to 2005.

In March 2016, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published projected emissions for 2020 which indicate that Ireland’s emissions at that stage could be in the range of 6 - 11% below 2005 levels. On a cumulative basis over the period 2013 - 2020, Ireland is projected to have a deficit of between 3 and 12 Megatonnes Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (MtCO2e).

According to the latest GHG inventory published by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in November 2016, emissions for 2015 are estimated at 59.84 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2eq), which is 3.7% higher than emissions in 2014.

The extent of the challenge to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, in line with our EU and international commitments, is well understood by the Government, as reflected in the National Policy Position on Climate Action and Low Carbon Development, published in April 2014, and now underpinned by the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act, 2015, which was enacted in December 2015.  The National Policy Position provides a high-level policy direction for the adoption and implementation by Government of plans to enable the State to move to a low carbon economy by 2050.  Statutory authority for the plans is set out in the Act.

I intend to launch an initial non-statutory public consultation process shortly to inform preparation of a draft National Mitigation Plan. This draft Plan will then be subject to a further statutory consultation, followed by submission of a final plan to Government for approval by June 2017. Work is well underway on the development of the National Mitigation Plan, the primary objective of which will be to track implementation of measures already underway, identify additional measures in the longer term to reduce GHG emissions, and progress the overall national low carbon transition agenda to 2050.  The first iteration of the National Mitigation Plan will place particular focus on putting the necessary measures in place to address the challenge to 2020, but also in terms of planning ahead to ensure that appropriate policies and measures can be put in place beyond this date and out to 2030.

Notwithstanding the efforts outlined above to address the challenge to comply with the 2020 targets, in the likely event that a gap to target still exists in 2020, retirement of Annual Emissions Allocations and units from the Kyoto Protocol Flexibility Mechanisms carried forward from 2008-2012 can be offset against the deficit. If this does not fully address any potential deficit, further carbon units could be purchased. It is not possible to accurately quantify the cost to purchase  notional carbon units at this stage as the cost is dependent on both the quantum and price of carbon units to be purchased at the time. Should the need to purchase carbon units arise, funding options will be considered in due course and will have regard to a number of matters, including the need to comply with the fiscal rules.