Michael McGrath (Cork South Central, Fianna Fail)
Link to this: Individually | In context | Oireachtas source

357. To ask the Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform the amount factored in for demographics for each year 2017 to 2021 in respect of the calculation of net fiscal space in the fiscal forecasts set out in the economic and fiscal outlook document published with budget 2017; if he will provide a breakdown of the amount allowed for demographics in respect of each Department for each year; if the amounts factored in provide for the full costs of known demographic changes; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [35968/16]

Paschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael)
Link to this: Individually | In context | Oireachtas source

Table A.7 in the Department of Finance's Budget 2017 publication includes a calculation of net fiscal space for the period to 2021.  It should be noted that the key variables underpinning this calculation are subject to revision and the figures published in the Budget documentation, therefore, represent an estimate of projected fiscal space for that period. 

The amount included in that table in respect of pre-committed expenditure for 2017 (line 13) includes the impact for 2017 of Estimates decisions in relation to voted expenditure set out in Expenditure Report 2017, as well as the impact of demographics. In relation to subsequent periods, the pre-committed expenditure includes voted expenditure increases relating primarily to demographics, the Lansdowne Road Agreement, and the Public Capital Plan.

Table 5 on page 31 of Expenditure Report 2017 includes increases in Ministerial Expenditure Ceilings for 2018 and 2019 to meet the cost of certain demographic pressures in Education, Health and Social Protection. The Social Protection ceilings in 2018 and 2019 also reflect the estimated Live Register savings set out in Table 7 on page 33 of the Expenditure Report 2017. Consistent with the relevant legislation, the Ministerial Expenditure Ceilings in respect of current expenditure have not been published for periods after 2019.

The following table set outs out the amounts allocated for demographics for the period 2018-21.  The specific allocations to particular sectors for 2018 and 2019 are informed by an analysis carried out by the Irish Government Economic and Evaluation Service (IGEES) within my Department. This analysis can be found on the IGEES website and the relevant link is:

The Deputy should note that the analysis is based on known demographic pressures at a point in time and as such is subject to amendment as part of the annual Estimates process.

Amounts Allocated for Demographics: 2018-2021