Michael McGrath (Cork South Central, Fianna Fail)
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35. To ask the Minister for Finance his views on whether the taxation receipts for 2016 will be sufficient to fund the overall gross voted expenditure of €56.1 billion for 2016 projected in the Expenditure Report 2017; the level of receipts required for November and December; the consequences of any shortfall; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [33877/16]

Michael Noonan (Limerick City, Fine Gael)
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Budget 2016 forecast tax receipts for 2016 of €47.2 billion. As the tax revenue performance was strong at end-May, with receipts some €774 million above profile, and up €1,549 million in year on year terms  forecast tax receipts for 2016 were increased by c. €900 million in the Summer Economic Statement to €48.1 billion. This forecast was not adjusted in Budget 2017, as taxes remain on track to meet this target.

The Expenditure Report 2017 forecasts a 2016 outturn of €51.9 billion for current spending and €4.2 billion for capital spending. This reflects the provision of an additional €850 million in resources compared to the Estimates published in December 2015.  

The Summer Economic Statement and the Mid-Year Expenditure Report set out increases of an additional €500 million for the Department of Health to deal with spending pressures in relation to health and social care and €40 million for the Garda Vote to support an intensified police response to the recent spate of serious crime related violence in Dublin.  

Subsequently, as part of Budget 2017, a further €310 million was included for 2016. This consists of €200 million of capital funding for necessary repair work to transport infrastructure arising from flood damage at the start of the year and capital payments for school building works. This was also signalled in the Mid-Year Expenditure Report. Separately, a further €110 million was provided to meet current expenditure demands.

With 10 months of the year gone, €36.7 billion has been collected in tax revenue, 1.7 per cent or €613 million ahead of the original target and up 4.7 per cent or €1,651 million on the same period last year. This leaves €11.4 billion, or almost one quarter of the annual tax target, to be collected during November and December this year. Almost two thirds of these receipts are due under the categories of corporation tax and income tax, both of which have demonstrated robust year-on-year growth in the first 10 months of this year.

The achievement of this target is necessary to fund overall gross voted expenditure of €56.1 billion in 2016. Any shortfall in tax revenue could jeopardise our 2016 general government deficit target of 0.9 per cent of GDP, which in turn would have implications for the structural deficit and the projected borrowings required to fund this increased expenditure.