Written answers
Tuesday, 8 November 2016
Department of Finance
Exchequer Revenue
Maureen O'Sullivan (Dublin Central, Independent)
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112. To ask the Minister for Finance to set out the overall tax burden after budget 2017 and the expected overall tax burden for each year to 2021; the way in which this compares with the out-turn levels reported by his Department during the past decade; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [33397/16]
Michael Noonan (Limerick City, Fine Gael)
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The information sought by the Deputy is set out in the following table. It shows the Exchequer tax outturns from 2006 to 2015 and the forecast for Exchequer tax revenues from 2016 to 2021, as set out in Budget 2017 last month. These nominal outturns and forecasts are also expressed as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Gross National Product (GNP) and on a per capita basis in the table.
| Year | Exchequer Tax Revenue € billion | Exchequer Tax Revenue as a % of GDP | Exchequer Tax Revenue as a % of GNP | Exchequer Tax Revenue Per Capita € * |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 45.5 | 24.6% | 28.3% | 10,758 |
| 2007 | 47.2 | 23.9% | 27.9% | 10,797 |
| 2008 | 40.8 | 21.7% | 25.3% | 9,092 |
| 2009 | 33.0 | 19.5% | 23.6% | 7,289 |
| 2010 | 31.8 | 19.0% | 22.9% | 6,971 |
| 2011 | 34.0 | 19.7% | 24.4% | 7,438 |
| 2012 | 36.6 | 20.9% | 25.8% | 7,993 |
| 2013 | 37.8 | 21.0% | 24.9% | 8,231 |
| 2014 | 41.3 | 21.4% | 25.3% | 8,955 |
| 2015 | 45.6 | 17.8% | 23.5% | 9,839 |
| 2016 (f) | 48.1 | 18.3% | 22.3% | 10,272 |
| 2017 (f) | 50.6 | 18.4% | 22.5% | 10,722 |
| 2018 (f) | 53.6 | 18.6% | 22.8% | 11,254 |
| 2019 (f) | 56.5 | 18.7% | 23.0% | 11,783 |
| 2020 (f) | 59.4 | 18.8% | 23.3% | 12,282 |
| 2021 (f) | 62.4 | 18.9% | 23.5% | 12,809 |
*The population estimates compiled by the CSO are currently based upon the 2011 Census results.
It should be noted that Exchequer tax revenues exclude a number of levies such as social security contributions, which in some measures are used in calculating the tax burden. In addition, motor tax receipts, which is remitted to the Local Government Fund, is also not included in the figures. By way of contrast, in 2015, which takes account of the most up to date finalised data, the Exchequer tax revenue as a percent of GDP was c. 18%. However, if the 2015 social security contributions of c. €8.6 billion and 2015 motor tax receipts of c. €1.1 billion were included in the calculation, it would be around 22%.
In addition, while the forecasts of tax revenues for the period 2016 to 2021, as a percentage of GDP and GNP remain relatively flat, it is important to point out that the forecasts take account of an indicative c. €2.5 billion of fiscal space allocated to proposed tax reductions to be implemented over this period.
Furthermore, the decline in the Exchequer tax revenue as a percentage of GDP and GNP in 2015 is primarily due to the revision to the 2015 National Income and Expenditure data, which resulted in a significant upward revision to Ireland's GDP and GNP levels. This development raises questions regarding the relevance of comparisons using GDP and GNP as a denominator. As I am sure the Deputy is aware, an expert group chaired by Prof. Philip Lane, Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, has been convened to consider this issue and is expected to report shortly.
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