Mick Wallace (Wexford, Independent)
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26. To ask the Minister for Communications, Energy and Natural Resources if he will provide details of the expected fines Ireland will be subject to if the EU 2020 climate change mitigation targets are not met; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [31964/16]

Denis Naughten (Roscommon-Galway, Independent)
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For each year between 2013 and 2020, Ireland has a greenhouse gas emission reduction target under the 2009 Effort Sharing Decision. For the year 2020 itself, the target set for Ireland is that emissions should be 20% below their value in 2005. This is jointly the most demanding 2020 reduction target allocated under the Effort Sharing Decision and one shared only by Denmark and Luxembourg.  The 2013 target is based on the average of emissions for the years 2008-2010. The target for each of the years 2014 through 2019 is on a straight-line trajectory between the targets for 2013 and 2020, and surpluses in one year can be used to cover deficits in any subsequent year.  The average incidence of these targets is a 12% reduction relative to 2005.  

In March 2016, the Environmental Protection Agency published projected emissions for 2020 which indicate that Ireland's emissions at that stage could be in the range of 6-11% below 2005 levels. On a cumulative basis over the period 2013-2020, Ireland is projected to have a deficit of between 3 and 12 Megatonnes Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (MtCO2e).

The extent of this challenge to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, in line with our EU and international commitments, is well understood by the Government, as reflected in the National Policy Position on Climate Action and Low Carbon Development, published in April 2014, and now underpinned by the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act 2015 which was enacted in December 2015.  The National Policy Position provides a high-level policy direction for the adoption and implementation by Government of plans to enable the State to move to a low-carbon economy by 2050.  Statutory authority for the plans is set out in the Act.  

In accordance with Section 4 of the Act, and in line with responsibilities assigned to me as Minister for Communications, Climate Action and Environment, I intend to make a draft National Mitigation Plan available for public consultation by the end of the year followed by submission of a final plan to Government for approval by June 2017. Work is well underway on the development of the National Mitigation Plan, the primary objective of which will be to track implementation of measures already underway and identify additional measures in the longer term to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and progress the overall national low carbon transition agenda to 2050.  The first iteration of the National Mitigation Plan will place particular focus on putting the necessary measures in place to address the challenge to 2020 but also in terms of planning ahead to ensure that appropriate policies and measures will be in place beyond that.  

The ultimate objective of successive National Mitigation Plans is to incrementally achieve the long-term vision of low carbon transition, set out in the National Policy Position, by 2050. In that context, the National Mitigation Plan will have regard to Ireland's obligations under the current 2009 Effort Sharing Decision, the Paris Agreement and any likely future EU and international obligations that may arise, including new national targets to be agreed under the 2030 climate and energy package.  

Notwithstanding the efforts outlined above to address the challenge to comply with the 2020 targets, in the event that a gap to target still exists in 2020, retirement of Annual Emissions Allocations and units from the Kyoto Protocol Flexible Mechanisms carried forward from 2008-2012 can be offset against the deficit. In the event that this would not fully address any potential deficit, further carbon units could be purchased. It is not possible to accurately quantify the cost to purchase notional carbon units at this stage as the cost is dependent on both the quantum and price of carbon units to be purchased at the time.