Seán Sherlock (Cork East, Labour)
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324. To ask the Minister for Finance the impact on the potential fiscal space arising from a greater national contribution to the EU arising from the upwards revision of Ireland’s GDP-GNI; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [26055/16]

Seán Sherlock (Cork East, Labour)
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325. To ask the Minister for Finance if he has determined whether the additional Central Fund allocation to the EU budget arising from the revision to Ireland’s 2015 GDP will detract from the fiscal space available for 2017; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [26056/16]

Michael Noonan (Limerick City, Fine Gael)
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I propose to take Questions Nos. 324 and 325 together.

The latest estimates of fiscal space available for Budget 2017 were set out in the Summer Economic Statement (SES).  These are being reviewed in context of the prepartions for Budget 2017.

Specifically, the significant revision to 2015 GDP by the Central Statistics Office is not expected to impact the fiscal space calculation for 2017.  This is because almost all the factors used to calculate the fiscal space for a particular year are fixed on the basis of the European Commission's spring forecasts in the previous year.  The Commission adopts this approach to 'fixing' the inputs in order to provide ex ante clarity and certainty to Member States in relation to how their budgetary plans will be assessed. 

My Department currently estimates the impact of the CSO revision on our EU Budget contribution for 2017 at around €380m. However, other mitigating factors mean the overall increase in the EU budget contribution is now estimated to be in the order of €280m when compared to the forecast underlying the SES.

It must be emphasised that the final impact depends on a number of variables including the size of the overall EU budget for 2017 (which is not due to be agreed until November 2016), GNI movements in other EU Member States and other EU budget operational developments.  My officials will continue to liaise with the European Commission in order to achieve greater clarity on the exact contribution, whether this expenditure will impact on the available fiscal space for new measures and how the Commission's overall assessment of Ireland's compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact requirements may be affected.