Written answers

Friday, 16 September 2016

Photo of David CullinaneDavid Cullinane (Waterford, Sinn Fein)
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239. To ask the Minister for Finance the other indicators that investors are looking at in terms of the Irish economy, as highlighted by a person (details supplied) when appearing before the Committee of Public Accounts on 21 July 2016. [24983/16]

Photo of Michael NoonanMichael Noonan (Limerick City, Fine Gael)
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The Central Statistics Office (CSO) published the National Income and Expenditure results for 2015 in July. These figures suggest that the economy grew by 26.3 per cent last year. This is significantly stronger than their previous estimate of 7.8 per cent.

The exceptional figure is largely related to the activities of multinationals across a small number of sectors including the tech, pharmaceutical and aircraft leasing sectors.  In particular, corporate restructuring and a number of balance sheet reclassifications had a substantial impact.

These factors have little, if any, impact on actual output and income developments in Ireland and greatly exaggerate the size of our economy. In view of this, a number of other indicators are also examined such as consumer spending, taxation trends and employment growth. An assessment of these indicators shows that the economy is performing very strongly.

For instance, recent data published indicate that:

- The volume of retail sales increased by 6.3 per cent year-on-year in July 2016.

- New cars licensed for the first time were up 20 per cent to end-July year-on-year.

- While consumer sentiment has moderated somewhat it still remains well above the long-run average.

- Purchasing Managers Indices show continued expansion in the manufacturing, services and construction sector.

- Tax receipts are up 6.2% to end-August year-on-year.

- Employment grew by 2.9 per cent over the year to Q2 2016, equivalent to an increase of over 56,000 jobs. As a result, there are now over 2 million people in employment for the first time since early 2009.

- The unemployment rate fell to 8.3 per cent in August, down from a peak of over 15 per cent in early 2012.

These are some of the most important indicators that my Department and investors currently monitor when assessing the strength of the Irish economy.

It is important to note that the Central Statistics Office has put together a group of experts to provide guidance on how more relevant indicators could be produced and published alongside the GDP figures in the future. My Department will be represented on this group. It is expected that this group will publish a report detailing their findings later this year.

I must also highlight that, given the exceptional nature of these growth figures, the Government will not formulate policy on the basis of these inflated figures.  Rather, policy will continue to be designed on the basis of more normal growth rates such as those recently indicated by my Department, which are in the region of 3½ to 4 per cent growth over the coming years.

Photo of David CullinaneDavid Cullinane (Waterford, Sinn Fein)
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240. To ask the Minister for Finance the up to 40 different economic indicators that the NTMA has in the investor pack it uses in its roadshows; the rationale behind the inclusion of those indicators; and if he will provide the up to 30 indicators that investment managers look to when deciding whether to invest in Government debt, as highlighted by a person (details supplied) when appearing before the Committee of Public Accounts on 21 July 2016. [24984/16]

Photo of Michael NoonanMichael Noonan (Limerick City, Fine Gael)
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The National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA) advise me that their presentation for institutional investors contains a wide range of information relating to the Irish economy and public finances. Generally speaking, the content of the presentation reflects questions asked of the NTMA by investors. The content is refreshed following investor roadshows undertaken by the NTMA. It is also constantly updated for the latest available information.

While I do not propose to list every indicator here, the presentation includes a wide range of macro-economic and fiscal indicators, such as:

- GDP and GNP

- Employment and unemployment

- Consumption, including retail sales

- Exports

- Investment

- Debt and deficit levels

- Funding developments including bond issuance details

- Credit ratings

The presentation also contains sections on the property market, on the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) and on the banking sector.

The more recent versions of the presentation have added a separate section on BREXIT.

The most recent version of the presentation was published on the NTMA website on 4 August last and can be accessed via the following link: .

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